2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

I don't think any projections have been done on Sharpie tracking yet. You're good.

 

Not really. Stuff that tracks across the gulf and hits the states generally dumps a bunch of rain on us. The ones that run up the coast miss us, but Texas to Florida 'canes have a maybe 30% chance of coming over us as they head inland.

 

As if we don't have enough to worry about, Corona has made weather forecasting far less reliable. Many airliners carry weather sensing instruments which gather information as they fly, which is forwarded to the National Weather Service. The huge cutback in the number of flights means that the computer models that modern meteorologists use to predict the weather are far less accurate. This affects everyday weather forecasts and in particular hurricane monitoring and forecasting. We'll know far less than normal about what's happening as they strengthen over the Atlantic and in the gulf.

Joy.

 

This is just lovely.



Seriously, when the the Bahamas become a major development space for tropical weather?

 

I finished watching "Outer Banks" last night. Good thing I got it done before the storm hit.

 

I'm afraid, come September, Cape Verde will say "hold my beer, and watch this."

 

Arthur, 1st Named Storm of Season, Moves Toward North Carolina Coast

 

It will slide past North Carolina, then get caught between the moon and New York City.

 

Who said there has been a "huge cutback in flights?" Just because commercial air travel has been curtailed doesn't mean the NWS or the Navy isn't going to continue the same number of reconnaissance flights over tropical systems.

 

He's talking about just normal everyday observation of meteorological data. Besides that, what are you alleging exactly? That planes are flying empty flights just to fly them?

 

Normally, nearly every airliner that flies has weather instruments. All of that is computerized, and it auto-downloads to the Weather service. What's the figure, two thirds of the airline's planes are grounded because no one is traveling? So the NWS is getting a third of the detailed info usually collected by those flights, and that means less accurate information being plugged into the weather models.

Garbage in, garbage out.