2020 MLB postseason thread

That is a very good point.

 

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Yeah, that was probably a cheap shot. I'd like to not have said that. Apologies to Guy. My point, though, is a lot of these analytic types will dismiss the feel for the game, just as you accuse feel-for-the-game types of dismissing analytics. Which, by the way, I did not do.

The point is, every individual game is different, and every individual's performance is different. When I played at my highest level, I admittedly was no longer very good, relative to everyone else. But on a rare given day the ball would look like a beach ball and I could hit anything. Pitchers who were mediocre to a fault would have days when they were unhittable. It's the "that's baseball" concept. The numbers cannot explain the deviations. Sometimes you just have to believe your eyes.

 

So that's the barometer? Batters were making contact? How 'bout 10 of the last 11 Dodgers hitters made outs? One guy gets a hit and Snell gets yanked. That's a panic move. Gotta give him one or two more guys.

 

I realize confrontation is your default, but you basically told me to fuck off and then posted a bunch of stuff I agree with.

Here are things you either ignored or didn't think I was sincere about:

Data are good over 162 games.

All those numbers do is indicate trends and probabilities. You want to play based on them over 162 games, that's smart.

I understand analytics and I think they have an important place in the game.

I'm sure there were "thousands" of times pitchers have been left in too long. There have been more than 200,000 games played. So it's a statistical likelihood even with analytics in play. But just because a pitcher who stays in the game gets beat doesn't automatically mean he was left in too long. The batters are trying, too, and sometimes they win. There's no guarantee the outcome with a relief pitcher wouldn't have been the same, or worse.

And of those thousands of games, how many involved a Cy Young-caliber pitcher rather than a crapola starter? How many were Game 6 of a World Series? As an Indians fan, I'll never believe Dennis Martinez wasn't removed too soon in 1995 in Game 6. Ditto Jaret Wright in Game 7 two years later (which probably didn't factor in the outcome).

Over the long haul, yeah, it's probably the right move to take Snell out in similar situations. And, yes, the numbers support that and I won't argue with the numbers. But when you use those numbers to take out a pitcher who has mostly been unhittable -- and not literally unhittable, Songbird, but just getting nearly everybody out -- and bring in a guy who on his best day is not as good as the guy you're taking out, that doesn't smack of intelligence. When the guy you're bringing in has given up runs in his last five outings, twice against the same team he was coming in to pitch against, gut feeling or no gut feeling, that's just an awful use of the data.

 

On top of the like 5 other saberrific things the guy on the left had cited? Yes, that was the something something that broke the pitcher's back.

I'm a gut guy and have visions of Morris/Smoltz dancing in my head forevermore. But I can understand Cash and his guys saying it was time to yank Snell.

The Dodgers had swung and missed a fucking ton before the 6th. By the 6th they were getting wood on just about every swing.

 

So you bring in this guy?

Nick Anderson Postseason Pitching Game Logs | Baseball-Reference.com

 

They discussed that. The guy on the left asked the same question, with stats.

Mookie's in an unthinkable slump against lefties, hitting something like .150 against lefties since last year.

Mookie's hitting well over .300 against righties in that span. All 16 homers this year were against righties.

So why did Cash not bring in a lefty?

Code:

                                                                                      
Split            G GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS BAbip
vs RHP             52 182 164 37 53  8  1 16  37  3  2 15 23 .323 .385 .677 1.061  .294
vs LHP             28  64  55 10 11  1  0  0   2  7  0  9 15 .200 .313 .218  .531  .275
vs RHP as RHB      52 182    164 53  8  1 16  37  0  0 15 23 .323 .385 .677 1.061  .294
vs LHP as RHB      28  64     55 11  1  0  0   2  0  0  9 15 .200 .313 .218  .531  .275
vs RH Starter   38 36 164 149 36 50  8  1 15  33  4  1 12 23 .336 .390 .705 1.095  .313
vs LH Starter   17 17  82  70 11 14  1  0  1   6  6  1 12 15 .200 .317 .257  .574  .241

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/30/2020.

 

So Snell is supposed to strike out every batter? It's not like the Dodgers started spraying ropes all over the place.

 

The Kershaw Effect™ has subjugated many minds?

Cash 90% probably made the right move to remove him.

Cash 100% brought in the wrong reliever to face Betts (and the next 2 guys).

 

I think that Songbird brings up a very good point. I still would have probably met Snell go one more batter, but “missing bats” is a sign of a pitcher’s dominance. If nothing else, it was certainly something Mr. Cash was aware of.

 

For every game I've seen a manager take out a starter too early to disastrous effect, I've seen 20 where a manager left one in too long to disastrous effect (I was at ALCS Game Seven in 2003!!). So I am inclined to cut Cash some slack about Snell. But not bringing in a lefty against Betts was just a blunder.