2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

5 pm update
Still moving west

 

Gustav (another hurricane that got my attention from the get-go) also had a track that kept getting shifted farther west and it eventually made landfall in Louisiana, though fortunately it was greatly weakened by shooting its wad on Cuba and Jamaica.

 

Good news: A more western track keeps the big Florida gulf cities from taking a direct hit. Tropical storm wind and rain is doable, even if it's the northeast quadrant.

Bad news: If Ian shoots the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan, the mountains won't have any influence on the eye wall. It'll come in hard and hot somewhere around Steinhatchee. Or worse, bury itself into Appalachicola or Carabelle.

 

Still shifting west at 11 p.m.

 

I need Trump to Sharpie that thing up the east coast somewhere.

 

2 a.m. Sunday. No change, really.

Remember:
H = Hurricane
M = MAJOR HURRICANE

 

There are several good people putting in work on YouTube tracking this thing.
Models are still all over the place. The Euro still has it smacking just north of Tampa while the GFS is all the way over at Pensacola.
The most promising thing is one guy has it dropping all the way to a Cat 1 before landfall. Still looks like it's going to hit in the middle of the night.

 

On the flip side, there is at least one prognosticator on YouTube with nice shiny graphics, but I wouldn't trust.
When you start your video with, "Now this isn't based on any scientific data, just my gut..."

 

There is a pretty big piece of these forecasted track models that ain't much more scientific than "my gut." So as to reflect the reality that there's uncertainty as to where a given hurricane will go, those cones have to include a variability term. Trouble is, every such storm's variability term is unique. To get around this, they simply use one standard deviation of the forecast error observed over the previous 5 years.

 

Obviously when you are dealing with Mother Nature, there is always some guess work involved. But when it comes to loss of life and billions of dollars in property damage, I'd rather not base my information on the YouTube channel of some cat who stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

 

This is the best hurricane site. Comes up with angles no one else has thought of.

https://www.sharpie.com/

 

More AI.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/a-machine-learning-assist-to-predicting-hurricane-intensity