2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

New track flexes back to the east a bit.

 

Probably the same cold front that's supposed to give us lows in the upper 40s along the Red River by Thursday night is giving Ian a nudge.

At 13 mph, Ian is booking it by hurricane standards. It won't be over Cuba long enough to disrupt it much. I just hope it weakens before it hits Florida.

 

Now officially Hurricane Ian. As earlier noted, tracking back to the east a bit a slowing. Direct landfall isn't expected until Friday. Tampa Bay to get sideswiped Thursday.

 

If Travis McGee is still in Cedar Key, he needs to move the Busted Flush somewhere else.

 

As a former Tampa Bay area resident, that path gives me the willies.

 

The American and European models have disagreed the whole time
The GFS tracks it west
European has it bowing toward Florida

 

Sideswiped is a very good description, and not on the good side of the storm. Our favorite shelling place is Pass-A-Grille. But yeah, Treasure Island, Indian Rocks Beach, Clearwater Beach and Tarpon Springs are going to get heavy flooding if that holds that path.

 

The Tampa Bay Rays have already concluded their home schedule. Nine-game roadie to close out the regular season at Cleveland, Houston and Boston.

 

It should.

 

I follow a lot of (sailboat) cruising youtubers, and one from a couple of months ago had a guy taking his soon-to-be-sold boat across Florida via the Okeechobee Waterway. Apparently of late the depths have been pretty significantly down, to the point that he had maybe a foot below his keel throughout his lake crossing. Sounds like that's fixing to be a non-issue for quite awhile.

 

For as much as America loves to build along the coastline, sandy beach or not, it is striking how relatively undeveloped the shore is between Panama City Beach and Clearwater. I’m grateful that there is so much old Florida is left and fear that it is about to get clobbered and quickly forgotten.

 

The bad news: Track inching a little closer east (landfall about 60 miles from my house).

The good news: Supposed to weaken quickly as it approaches the coast, with it on the border of Cat 1/TS when it makes landfall.