2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

Fine. Fine! Take your like and go.

 

Future Lee is another storm popping off the Cape Verdes.

El Niño has lost its fastball this season.

 

I think it's an issue with Flooding Independent Precipitation or above league average Extra Rainy Atmosphere.

 

C'mon, man. Nobody uses the Extra Rainy Atmosphere metric anymore. These days it's all about Winds Above Radiosonde.

 

This thing is supposed to get nasty fast. It could be a 4 or 5. Most of the models have it not making landfall in the US, fortunately. There is a system deflecting it. Bermuda could get nailed, and it could impact coastal Canada.

 

Thought I had while looking at that map: Who wouldn't watch a "Schoolhouse Rock" style bit about how hurricanes form?

 

I would like to see more curve in that projection. The original computer run had it dangerously close to the east coast of Florida. Again, we're projecting eight days out right now -- and tropical systems are notoriously fickle in September. Fingers crossed.

 

I especially like the gray loop-de-loop.

 

I agree that I don't like the straight line shot, but apparently there is supposed to be a big turn in it. I certainly hope so.

 

There’s a high-pressure ridge over central Florida that’s supposed to move east over the Atlantic later in the week. That should push that system northeast.

 

Yeah, I'm just a storm
But when the weather's warm
Into a hurricane I form

 

Here's the first NHC discussion on Tropical Depression 13. It's depressing:

The environment around the depression appears to be conducive for strengthening. The only obvious hindering factor is light-to-moderate northeasterly shear, which should keep the intensification rate in check in the short term. However, in two to three days, this shear is forecast to relax with an upper-level ridge building near the cyclone, and the system should be moving over record-warm waters of near 30 deg C east of the Lesser Antilles (that would look more in place in the Gulf of Mexico).

These factors could support rapid intensification by the end of the week, although it too early to determine exactly when this might occur until a better-defined inner core forms. The NHC intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus. All indications are that the depression will become a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 12.5N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.8N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.6N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.3N 49.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 54.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 19.4N 59.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH