2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...inter-forecast-cold-temperatures/71214343007/

 

Well, there goes dry weather for winter golf season.

 

I don't recall seeing this posted, but it was repeated today on Radiolab.

The link between tree rings, hurricanes in the Caribbean, and pirates.

The Fellowship of the Tree Rings

[Edit] I forgot. It ends in a lesson on climate change.

 

What you Tolkien about, Willis?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_shipwrecks_in_the_17th_century

According to this, the only ships lost to a hurricane in that century both happened in the same storm on Sept. 5, 1622. The far majority were either lost in battle, ran aground, or wrecked in non-tropical situations.

But at the same time, shipping to the New World was still in its infancy and so the opportunities to make contact with a hurricane — even the proverbial fish storm — were fewer and farther between.

Not saying there were fewer hurricanes in that timeframe, just saying there had to be fewer human observations of them.

 

And that's one of the "apples to oranges" issues I have with determining the number of tropical invests per season before satellite imagery was perfected. We only knew of hurricanes or tropical storms when they hit land or were spotted by a ship, which is obviously not a complete picture of what was going on. Look at how many named storms pop up and peter out without being noticed by any land observation.

Is there more tropical activity now because we can see them all or are there more because of changing weather? I'd lean toward the second, but I don't even think the folks at NHC can say for certain. Sixty years of data seems like a lot but in the grand scheme of tropical forecasting, it's not.

 

As recently as the 1930s or 40s there were hurricanes that caused massive amounts of damage and loss of life because no one knew they were coming. So I subscribe to the first of your suggestions.
Plus, people forget that the average number of tropical systems is just that — a historical average. It means that there are years where there are a few more, and years where there are a few less. Just because there are 20 or 21 storms in a year instead of the average of 17 or 18 is not a reason to freak out.

 

Modern tracking obviously means more data. As recently as the 1950s or so (Hazel in '54 to be exact), you were still relying on visual reports and radio transmissions.
I always think about the 1715 hurricane that took out the Spanish treasure fleet, the 1900 hurricane that devastated Galveston, and the Labor Day hurricane that killed all the WWI vets building the railroad to Key West. None of those people knew what was about to happen until the horizon turned dark.
I don't freak out about the number of storms. I just closely watch where they are headed.

 

I'm "pinned the hurricane tracking map from the Herald or Sun-Sentinel on the refrigerator every June and listened to the radio for the latest coordinates" old.

 

You also have to take dollar figure amounts for damage with a grain of salt. One of the reasons hurricanes cause more property damage now is the simple fact that there is more property to damage. A stretch of coastline that was empty 70, 80, 100 years ago is now a bustling resort town with expensive hotels and vacation homes and a hell of a lot more people in harm's way. The storm itself is not appreciably stronger than it was back then, it's just that there is more stuff to wreck.

 

Thank God your lord and savior knew how to save America, right?

 

It would be easier for you all to listen to the segment of the show. These scientists went through a lot to show this. Tree ring growth tracks with occurrences of hurricane remarkably. Then, they found a correlation between earlier news reports of hurricanes and ring growth. Next, they found a correlation between tree ring growth and detailed reports of fewer Spanish shipwrecks that can be not attributed to human factors to extend the data on hurricanes back further.
The period of fewer wrecks they identified was the peak of pirate activity in the Caribbean.

That period has also been identified as a period when the Sun releases less energy and things are cooler on earth, a solar minimum.

The earth is in a period of solar minimum.