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640 effing million

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by JackReacher, Mar 28, 2012.

Page 14 of 30
  1. Zeke12

    Zeke12 Guest

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    The concept here is implied odds -- or pot odds, for poker players.

    You're at 1 in 176 million, yes. But your one-dollar bet puts you in the pot for $580 million. You're actually 2-1 on your pot odds. That's damn good.

    Meaning every time the pot is over the odds, it's probably worth throwing down a buck or two. More than that? Probably not.

    Which, curiously enough, seems to be what a lot of people do.
     
    Zeke12, Mar 30, 2012
    #157
  2. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    I was just going to post the same thing. I wouldn't recommend dropping $1,000 on lottery tickets, but Ragu completely discounts the possibility of winning.
     
    bigpern23, Mar 30, 2012
    #158
  3. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    My earlier post was long, but I tried to explain why that isn't correct. The think that misses is that multiple people can pick the winning numbers, and the odds on a pot like this (given that the higher the pot goes, the more people buy tickets) are that at least two people will pick the winning number (as calculated by the lottery officials). With an after-tax payout of $230 million, that would give you an after-tax expected payout of $115 million (if two people pick the winning number -- less if more than two pick it), with 1 in 176 million odds. So you are actually getting an expected payout of about 65 cents on your dollar.
     
    The Big Ragu, Mar 30, 2012
    #159
  4. dooley_womack1

    dooley_womack1 Well-Known Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    That Dyrdyk guy spending $700 on tickets is crazy. Someone getting into existential angst over whether to buy a $1 chance at $230 million is crazy, too. There is a reasonable middle ground between those extremes.
     
    dooley_womack1, Mar 30, 2012
    #160
  5. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    1 in 176 million!?! So you're saying there's a chance!
     
    Inky_Wretch, Mar 30, 2012
    #161
  6. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    In that case I am definitely not buying 176 million tickets.
     
    LongTimeListener, Mar 30, 2012
    #162
  7. JackReacher

    JackReacher Well-Known Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    Personally, I don't pay attention to the odds and all those number games you guys are trying to explain. I know it's a longshot. Once every couple years, I'll drop $20 on tickets, like I will today. And I'll be over it the minute I realize I didn't win.
     
    JackReacher, Mar 30, 2012
    #163
  8. Zeke12

    Zeke12 Guest

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    So it's really good pot odds with four straight cards on the board. Most poker players are still gonna stay in that hand.

    That's if you're a poker player.
     
    Zeke12, Mar 30, 2012
    #164
  9. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    You are not reading me correctly. SOMEONE will win.

    I am pointing out that given your odds of winning, and your expected payout is, mamkes it one of the biggest sucker bets going. Your expectation should be that you are plunking down $1 for a chance at 65 cents.
     
    The Big Ragu, Mar 30, 2012
    #165
  10. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    I find it stunning, and I mean this in the nicest possible way, that Ragu is so hostile to baseball statistics, but so reliant on them in every other endeavor.
     
    Dick Whitman, Mar 30, 2012
    #166
  11. JackReacher

    JackReacher Well-Known Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    My expectation is that I'm gonna lose. Then again, I'm also hoping I'm one of the luckiest sumbitches on the planet, as well.
     
    JackReacher, Mar 30, 2012
    #167
  12. jr/shotglass

    jr/shotglass Well-Known Member

    Re: Five hundred effing million

    Sigh ... but if I thought like that, it wouldn't be any fun plunking down the dollar.
     
    jr/shotglass, Mar 30, 2012
    #168
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