640 effing million

The Big Ragu · Mar 30, 2012

FileNotFound said:

KJIM said:

pressboxer said:

Get a luxury box for the nearest NFL team just to see what it's like.
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Sounds fun, except my nearest NFL team is Jacksonville.
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I'd buy a luxury box at every NFL stadium, and get a Gulfstream and a pilot to take me to whichever game I wanted to watch that Sunday. I'd pour all the rest into Gannett stock.
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A large percentage of lottery winners lose it all within five years. Could you deal with flying coach?

dooley_womack1 · Mar 30, 2012

lono said:

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So you'd become a professional poker player like Phil Laak?

Quiet Man · Mar 30, 2012

Didn't realize my state even had Mega Millions until today - always thought it was either/or between that & Powerball. But it turns out we have both.

I bought 10 (ten). I'm only posting this to give Ragu a migraine.

The Big Ragu · Mar 30, 2012

Only migraine gonna happen is when our two tickets win, and yours end up as scrap paper.

dooley_womack1 · Mar 30, 2012

Does y'all read Atlas Shrugged

The Big Ragu said:

Moderator1 said:

The Big Ragu said:

I am going to buy a ticket today, even though it goes against every principle I have. I will count it more as an entertainment expense than as an investment. This will be the second time in my life I have bought a lottery ticket.

I do a lot of trading of different instruments in my life, and my decisions are always driven by expected values. I do calculations in my head and on paper to figure out my odds of being successful, and then make decisions that maximize my odds of being successful. I try to give myself the highest expected value for the amount of money I put at risk.

Lotteries are horrible sucker's bets. Your expected value on your dollar is typically 50 cents or less, depending on the jackpot.

When I look at this jackpot, I start off like everyone else. Your odds are 1 in 176 million. And the payout is greater that $176 million. From what I read, after tax, you can expect around $230 million.

The problem is that there is no guarantee you will be the only winner. And according to something the Wall Street Journal blogged (http://blogs.wSportsJournalists.com/economics/2012/03/29/is-mega-millions-540-million-jackpot-a-good-bet/?mod=google_news_blog), lottery officials figure there is a 76 percent chance of someone picking a winner in this drawing, and if there is at least one winner, there will likely be two (actually, 1.9, on average). That would cut your winnings in half and lower your expected payout.

What is interesting is that as jackpots in these things go up, more people buy tickets, and it is pretty linear. And the more people who buy tickets, the more chance there are multiple winners, which lowers the value of any payout.

So for that blog entry, they relied on work a computer scientist did, which plotted the expected value of a ticket against the size of the jackpot and found that it looked kind of like a bell curve.

Up to a certain point, higher jackpots mean higher expected payouts, but after a certain point, the risk of multiple winners takes over and the expected payout goes down.

According to his calculation, the best time to buy a ticket is when the jackpot is $420 million. But even then the expected value of a ticket is just 69 cents.

So the bottom line is that you really are better off hanging onto your dollar.

And with that said, I am going to buy a ticket today, anyhow. I'll rationalize it away with the fact that I have wasted a dollar in lots of other ways without giving it so much thought.
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Ragu, you know I love you like it is no one's business. You're my brother, my main man, all that jank.

But GODDDDDDDAMNNNNNNN that is way way way too fucking much analysis over this.
It's a $1 lottery ticket. You have a shitball's chance in hell of winning and I don't need a calculator to tell me that. You have none if you don't play.

Jesus. My head hurts. My first mil is now going toward aspirin.

Second mil is for shoes.
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Yeah, but that's what I do. It's like asking a Zebra not to have stripes.

For what it is worth, I bought two tickets. One for me. One for my woman. She asked me why I was wasting money like that. I guess I found the right woman.
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Do y'all cuddle and read Atlas Shrugged by candlelight?

Versatile · Mar 30, 2012

The Big Ragu said:

Only migraine gonna happen is when our two tickets win, and yours end up as scrap paper.
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I'm officially rooting for Ragu. (Well, I'm rooting for any of my friends and family members who might give me money if they won, foremost, but Ragu's a good second choice.) Anyone who trash-talks about state-run lottery is good in my book.

Are RickStain and I the only people to post in this thread who didn't buy tickets based on principle?

dooley_womack1 · Mar 30, 2012

When I win, I'll buy you 10 for the next drawing.

RickStain · Mar 30, 2012

I don't know if cheap bastardry is a principle.

Quiet Man · Mar 30, 2012

The Big Ragu said:

Only migraine gonna happen is when our two tickets win, and yours end up as scrap paper.
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You really shouldn't have picked the same numbers for both tickets.

dooley_womack1 · Mar 30, 2012

Actually, Brian is saving the $1 he would have spent, compounding the interest so that dollar will be worth $8.23 by the time he retires.

The Big Ragu · Mar 30, 2012

dooley_womack1 said:

Does y'all read Atlas Shrugged

The Big Ragu said:

Moderator1 said:

The Big Ragu said:

I am going to buy a ticket today, even though it goes against every principle I have. I will count it more as an entertainment expense than as an investment. This will be the second time in my life I have bought a lottery ticket.

I do a lot of trading of different instruments in my life, and my decisions are always driven by expected values. I do calculations in my head and on paper to figure out my odds of being successful, and then make decisions that maximize my odds of being successful. I try to give myself the highest expected value for the amount of money I put at risk.

Lotteries are horrible sucker's bets. Your expected value on your dollar is typically 50 cents or less, depending on the jackpot.

When I look at this jackpot, I start off like everyone else. Your odds are 1 in 176 million. And the payout is greater that $176 million. From what I read, after tax, you can expect around $230 million.

The problem is that there is no guarantee you will be the only winner. And according to something the Wall Street Journal blogged (http://blogs.wSportsJournalists.com/economics/2012/03/29/is-mega-millions-540-million-jackpot-a-good-bet/?mod=google_news_blog), lottery officials figure there is a 76 percent chance of someone picking a winner in this drawing, and if there is at least one winner, there will likely be two (actually, 1.9, on average). That would cut your winnings in half and lower your expected payout.

What is interesting is that as jackpots in these things go up, more people buy tickets, and it is pretty linear. And the more people who buy tickets, the more chance there are multiple winners, which lowers the value of any payout.

So for that blog entry, they relied on work a computer scientist did, which plotted the expected value of a ticket against the size of the jackpot and found that it looked kind of like a bell curve.

Up to a certain point, higher jackpots mean higher expected payouts, but after a certain point, the risk of multiple winners takes over and the expected payout goes down.

According to his calculation, the best time to buy a ticket is when the jackpot is $420 million. But even then the expected value of a ticket is just 69 cents.

So the bottom line is that you really are better off hanging onto your dollar.

And with that said, I am going to buy a ticket today, anyhow. I'll rationalize it away with the fact that I have wasted a dollar in lots of other ways without giving it so much thought.
Click to expand...

Ragu, you know I love you like it is no one's business. You're my brother, my main man, all that jank.

But GODDDDDDDAMNNNNNNN that is way way way too fucking much analysis over this.
It's a $1 lottery ticket. You have a shitball's chance in hell of winning and I don't need a calculator to tell me that. You have none if you don't play.

Jesus. My head hurts. My first mil is now going toward aspirin.

Second mil is for shoes.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but that's what I do. It's like asking a Zebra not to have stripes.

For what it is worth, I bought two tickets. One for me. One for my woman. She asked me why I was wasting money like that. I guess I found the right woman.
Click to expand...

Do y'all cuddle and read Atlas Shrugged by candlelight?
Click to expand...

Nope. We have electricity. Can afford it with all the money we haven't wasted on lottery tickets.

She has never read Atlas Shrugged. Honest.

Zeke12 · Mar 30, 2012

RickStain said:

I don't know if cheap bastardry is a principle.
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You retained the right not to act. You had a good day.

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640 effing million

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640 effing million

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