A Rod to Miami?

Re: The ARod question

The Marlins are not half as strapped as they want us to believe, are they?

 

Re: The ARod question

I think you can make the rational argument that A-Rod is more likely to get a hit tonight than Eric Chavez, who is 0-for-the-series and has (or had) much less talent.

And if A-Rod is going to get that hit, he's less likely to do it as a pinch-hitter, when he's 0-for-his-career (14 pinch-hit ABs.)

So I think you could argue that Girardi isn't necessarily putting his players/team in the best position to succeed.

But as long as Granderson and Cano and Swisher and Ichiro aren't hitting either (team OPS of .613, so it isn't just A-Rod), what does it really matter?

 

Re: The ARod question

This is the type of old baseball writer that is to be respected. Remember, this is a man with a hall of fame vote, he is not to be questioned.

 

Re: The ARod question

By the way, this isn't the first time a future Hall of Famer has been benched in the postseason.

Back in 1935, the Cubs benched a slumping Chuck Klein — who had won the Triple Crown just two years earlier — for the first four games of the World Series against the Tigers after he hit .143 in September. He was a key contributor as a pinch-hitter and played his way back into the lineup for Games 5-6, but Detroit won the Series.

http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/8dd27865

 

Re: The ARod question

First and perhaps most important, he's definitely not *more* likely because of the slump. That's gambler's fallacy. You are never due for regression to the mean, it just happens. If you are a .300 hitter and are in a .100 slump, you aren't due to hit .500 to make up the difference. You'll just tend to move back to .300 as you are going to hit .300 for the rest of your at-bats.

His career postseason numbers have diverged a bit again, to the point where his OBP is virtually identical and his SLG is about 100 points worse. I don't find this to be particularly meaningful, especially since he only made the postseason once during his prime seasons (yes, yes, his own fault for signing with Texas, but still true).

The history of A-Rod's "postseason problems" roughly goes like this:

Through 2004, he crushed in the postseason, but his teams lost, so clearly he wasn't a winner.
In 2005 and 2006, he performed poorly, so clearly he can't hit in the postseason.
In 2007 and 2009, he crushed again, and his team won a World Series, but it didn't count or something.
From 2010 to 2012, he's flailed again.

It's pretty clear to me that people simply dislike A-Rod and want to pile on regardless of the facts.

So if we've thrown out "A-Rod can't hit in the postseason," what are we left with?

A 37-year-old who hit for a .783 OPS in the regular season. He finished the season in a 263/377/289 stretch with 26% strikeouts since Sept. 23 and has hit 125/222/125 with 9 Ks in 18 PAs in this postseason.

So the questions you have to ask yourself are:

1) Do I believe in slumps?
2) What are the alternatives?

The answer to No. 1 is yes, but with a caveat. Not every 2-for-20 stretch means something. You can crush line drives right at fielders for weeks at a time. You can hit 4 335-foot fly balls in a week, but they all go out down the line and you look red-hot. You have to watch the games, monitor the peripherals, or ideally both, to see who is really hot and who is really cold. Given the high strikeout rate and what I've seen of A-Rod this series, he's legitimately slumping.

If he were still an elite hitter slumping, I'd send him out there. But at a .783 OPS (and lower with postseason included)? He's not worth giving that sort of deference to.

Now throw in the fact they are facing a right-handed starter tonight. Chavez is a lefty that OPSed .904 against righties this season, and A-Rod is a righty that OPSed .717 against righties this season.

It seems like an obvious call to me. Not because "A-Rod can't hit in the postseason because he's a choker!" which is absurd. Because he's a fading hitter who is ice-cold with an unfavorable platoon split tonight.

 

Re: The ARod question

I was waiting for you to troll in, as you usually do. I suspect DD misinterpreted what I posted but his jab pissed me off and I felt I had to set him straight. Stop trying to create an us against them situation. That's a major problem with you JC. You seemingly don't respect different points of view.

 

Re: The ARod question

No, he just doesn't respect you.

Which is, you know, your own doing.

 

Re: The ARod question

So where's he going at midseason?

 

Re: The ARod question

I don't give a fuck if he doesn't respect me and I think he can speak for himself. Either way, it doesn't put a dollar in my pocket and definitely doesn't take one out. Nor does my opinion put a dollar in his pocket or take one out. So what's your point?

 

Re: The ARod question

Thanks for that very detailed and reasonable analysis, Rick. I very much appreciate it.

 

Re: The ARod question


Weirdly - or not - the Yankees were killing the ball the last 2 weeks of the season. Killing it.

Cano, for example, hit .593 the last 6 games of the season, and his OPS was 1.074.

 

Re: The ARod question

Yep. LOL. But seriously Mr., there really isn't any need for name calling and what have you on this board and I apologize for my stupid, yes stupid, behavior.
And Rick, I read your argument and was very impressed. My personal belief is that ARod still has some good years left in him. Like many players, he just has trouble getting it done in the postseason.