AL Cy Young

Interesting question, really. Jayson Stark frames the debate:

If there has ever been an award race that loomed as a referendum on where we stand on New Age versus Old Time award values, this is it. We’re about to find out exactly how sabermetrified our trusty Cy Young electorate has become.

If this were 1963, or even 2003, there’s no doubt who would win this Cy Young. That would be Sabathia, a big-time ace who is 18-5, has gone 14-2 since the beginning of June, just ripped off a streak of 16 straight quality starts and has a shot to become the AL’s first 24-game winner in two decades.

So for voters fixated on the old win column, Sabathia currently owns eight more wins than King Felix. And it wouldn’t shock anyone, given the state of their two teams, if that gap inflated to nine, or 10 or 11 wins by the end of the season.

It’s one thing for the voters to hand a Cy Young to 15- and 16-game winners over a 19-game winner, the way they did last year for Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke. It’s another thing to deliver a Cy Young to a 13-game winner over, say, a 22-game winner.

But remember, this is a performance award, period. And King Felix leads the league in every meaningful sabermetric pitching stat on Earth except adjusted ERA+ (where Buchholz is No. 1—and Sabathia ranks ninth).

Even if you compare more traditional numbers, though, Hernandez has an ERA that’s three-quarters of a run lower than Sabathia’s, an opponent OPS that’s 74 points lower, more innings pitched, a better strikeout rate and a better WHIP.

So if you truly analyze the big picture, Buchholz (your ERA leader) and Wilson (whose team is 15-2 in his past 17 starts) should rank ahead of Sabathia in this race. But are voters really ready to ignore that win column completely? We’ll find out. Won’t we?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings1000902_1

 

Be careful, Devil. The Yankee-haters and sabermetrics nerds will pounce on you if you keep spouting such "old cliched bullshit."

 

The Yankees are 21-8 (.724) when Sabathia starts. When anyone else starts, they are 63-42 ( .600). So that's +.124 with Sabathia.

The Mariners are 14-15 (.482) when Felix starts. Anyone else, 38-67 (.361). So that's +.121 with Felix.

 

Nerd

 

Edit: Run support for each pitcher is much more useful.

The Mariners are scoring an average of 3.17 runs per game when Felix Hernandez pitches.

The Yankees score 6.21 per game when Sabathia pitches.

 

Up to now, I have felt compelled not to comment, since I have a dog in this hunt. But I must admit: the Yankee hatred is strong in me. And getting stronger, thank you very much.

 

Either one can pitch for me, anytime. I daresay if Sabathia was a Mariner, he'd be 10-10 and if Hernandez was a Yank, he'd be 18-5. But history teaches us that players on winning teams win more hardware than those on losing ones. That may not be right, but it is pretty much how winners of individual awards have been chosen since forever. You have to REALLY excel to win an individual award when your team sucks, and then hope nobody else really excels either.

 

Yet, there are voters who realize just how good Hernandez has been. YankeeFan mentioned that Sabathia has shown an ability to finish strong. So has Hernandez, who was dominant late last season. A lot can happen in a month.

Of course, Sabathia could also improve his case tremendously in September. Getting his ERA under 3.00 would help. It would seem a bit off for him to win the Cy Young award otherwise in a season with so many pitchers who have an ERA under 3.00. There were 15 of them heading into Friday's games, though one (Brett Myers) will will likely fall out of that group tonight.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question

 

C.J. Wilson.

 

You guys keep making excuses for poor Felix Hernandez about how hard it is to win for the Mariners and how little run support he gets.

Maybe he should take a lesson from last night's game. Luke French got all the run support he needed in the 1st inning.

 

Ah, before any heads explode, I should probably point out that I'm joking.