AL Cy Young

Are you going to tell me that pitchers should "pitch to the score"?

Please tell me that pitchers should "pitch to the score." Pretty please. Please tell me that's what great pitchers do. Please, please, please go there.

 

Not without help.

 

Of course not. That's ludicrous and has been disproven.

 

Winners win because they're winners.

 

In team sports, winners win because they have help.

 

Cliff Lee should win the Cy Young and it really shouldn't even be close. No. 3 in IP, No 1 in WHIP, ERA No. 4... he has walked 10 guys all season...10 walks! His K:BB ratio is nearly 15:1! He has 7 complete games and 15 quality starts. He is averaging over 8 innings per game! It's simply not close, Cliff Lee has been far and away the best pitcher in baseball this season, and that's without even diving into the Sabremetric stats, where he has been even more dominant.

1) Lee








2) Bucholtz (His lack of innings hurts though)
3) Hernandez
4) Sabbathia

 

statrat, focus on Bucholtz's lack of innings all you like, but he has four more wins than Lee and a lower ERA.

 

Cliff Lee might be the best pitcher in baseball and the one I'd choose to start a game if my life depended on it. He has as much chance of throwing a baseball from here to the moon as he does of winning the Cy Young this year

 

My Cy Young predictor stat so far (not counting any of yesterday's games.)

It is based on historical correlations to only a few best predictor variables. Interestingly it missed both winners last year (possibly showing a trend toward changing attitudes), but is over 90% for picking the winner in all other seasons I have had time to run.


AL
Clay Buchholz: 13.11
CC Sabathia: 11.72
Carl Pavano: 9.39
Jon Lester: 9.05
Cliff Lee total (AL only): 7.46 (Actually lower if we count both leagues)
Jered Weaver: 7.03
John Danks: 6.77

So interestinlgly Buchholz does win based on age-old voting parameters, and also looks like a winner in terms of newer stats like ERA+, but because of his low innings and possibly defensive support he is only 6th in the "new" new saber stats like WAR.

Sabathia is also out of the top 5 in WAR.

 

I know Seattle is nearly in Canada, but last I checked, Lee has been in the AL all year.

 

Whoops. That's since the move. He's like 6.54 for all games.

 

So you think if C.C. - on a team with a loaded lineup - goes 25-4 with a 6.70 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP, he should win it over a guy like Felix if he goes 4-25 with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP?
Because that's what you just said.