Baseball thread No. 7: Somebody slip the pinstripers a Mickey

Six years after his countryman Kazuhisa Ishii was nailed, Hiroki Kuroda just took a line drive to the head.

Scary stuff.

 

Just heard that, haven't seen a clip yet. Heard the ball went some crazy distance after smashing off his dome.

Hope he's all right.

 

Ball went about 50 feet high, then landed about 20 or so feet in foul territory on the third-base side, close enough to home plate for the catcher to make a stab at catching it.

Dodgers pitchers - hell, Japanese Dodgers pitchers - should start wearing helmets. Two in six years is too many.

 

Damn, what's up with balls in the head today?

Ramon Ramirez (sorry, multitasking today) just nailed Ian Kinsler (just off the DL yesterday) in the head with a 92-mph fastball.

Kinsler went down like he'd been shot, then got up, shouted some words at the pitcher, went to first base and stayed in the game.

Attaboy Ian.

 

Lidge is channeling the ghost of Mitch Williams this season.

 

OK sabermetrics folks, explain this to me.

This is an excerpt from a Tyler Kepner story on Teixeira, who to my eyes is one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball. Needless to say, I agree with what Girardi says but please explain "Ultimate Zone Rating" to me.
I'm not here to rip sabermetrics. I'm asking a serious question.



Teixeira has also helped the Yankees with his base running and fielding, though one metric, Ultimate Zone Rating, actually has Teixeira hurting the Yankees defensively. Ultimate Zone Rating tries to measure range and errors and how they affect runs allowed or prevented.

“Just think of all the plays he has made to save games for us,” Manager Joe Girardi said. “I’m not sure how they figure that out. I don’t know how you compute range without doing a battery of tests, because you’re making assumptions on how hard the ball is hit, how fast the infield is. To me, it is really a complicated thing to be able to predict without watching someone every day and understanding how they go about their business.”

 

First of all, I think Kepner's not presenting the full picture here, because even though Tex's lateral range -- which is all that UZR tries to measure -- has been below-average his entire career, that's a long way from saying Tex is "hurting the Yankees defensively."

It's like saying somebody's a terrible baserunner because he's only got 5 stolen bases. Well, no. There's a lot more factors that go into whether a runner helps his team on the bases, just like there's a lot more factors that go into whether a fielder helps his team defensively.

So IMO, Kepner is taking the stat out of context in that article.

Here's a better analysis of Tex's defense from the guys at theyankeeuniverse.com:

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/?p=6252

 

if there is truly some modern statistical b.s. that questions how marvelous a fielder teixiera is, well, that's all the evidence i need to call BULLSHIT on all this new-age goddly-goop.

on another totally unrelated issue, watching yanks-mariners now. with first and second and two out, down 4-2 in bottom of seventh, ichiro was just thrown out trying to steal third.

wtf? i don't see ichiro much. know he's a great average hitter and base stealer. but that doesn't mean he's either a good baserunner or smart player. is this typical, that he'd stupidly try to pad his steal total to take his team out of a late threat in a close game?

i ask because i am a true believer in no one has any idea how good or valuable a player is until you see him play every day. teixiera is a good example. he is far better than i ever imagined.

 

The stat doesn't "question" Tex. Read my post again before you start calling bullshit.

Kepner worded it wrong, simple as that. Blame the writer who doesn't know what he's talking about, not the stat.

No, that's not typical. You can't have any idea how good or valuable a player he is until you see him play every day. 8)

 

A few things.

First, that's a very fair point about vertical range. To some degree, all major-league infielders can handle a line drive right at them, and a few will get to any sharp line drives that are hit to their left or right to any degree. But height and leap should be good for a few outs a year, which should be factored into a theoretical total defense measure.

Second, UZR has Teixeira rated as an above-average first baseman for his career and had a very good season last year. Right now, he's at -0.4 runs of UZR for the season, but most statheads would tell you not to hang your hat on 109 games that look out of place with the rest of his career. I don't think anyone would say he's "hurting the Yankees defensively" just because his UZR to this point in the season is slightly below 0.

Third, every first baseman in the league has middle infielders going on about their ability to pick throws. It's a 100% Crash Davis quote.

In a few years, we'll have true ball-flight data and it will revolutionize defense the way pitch-Fx has revolutionized pitching evaluation. Until then, I won't complain about anyone who wants to take defensive metrics with a huge amount of skepticism.

 

Well, that's mostly off the strength of his rookie season and last year. He's had two outstanding UZR seasons, one good one and four (slightly) below-average UZR seasons, including 2009.

So I think it's fair to say his lateral range is not that great, but as theyankeeuniverse guys said, he's a big guy and that's to be expected. And of course, he does so many other things well that he's easily one of the best defensive first basemen in the league. I don't think anyone would -- or could -- argue that.

And yeah, mark me down as a big skeptic of current defensive metrics. There's too many of them that measure one aspect of defense (such as UZR), and it's too easy to take them out of context -- like Kepner did.

 

Thanks buck and Rick.

But Rick, I don't think FX has revolutionized how anyone evaluates pitching.
It's one more "stat" to consider...nothing more, nothing less.


And in a previous discussion of Teixeira, when boom wondered how he compared to Keith Hernandez, I believe I mentioned that Keith had better range going to his right.