Baseball Thread Rated X -- Mature Audiences Only

Why is everyone assuming the Yankees will get by the Tigers in the ALDS?

 

Because they are young.
Because everyone knows what Kenny Rogers brings in the playoffs.

I was asking about starting pitching, but the ambiguity of the question could imply bullpen.

The Twins haven't demonstrated that they have been able to lock down the Yankees, why suddenly would they do it in the playoffs?

 

the do have reliable middle short and long relief, but juan rincon has struggled since mid-august and gardenhire doesn't much trust jesse crain. still, that leaves dennis reyes and pat neshek for an innning each. reyes has been much overlooked this year. if they had an comeback of the year award solely for middle relievers he'd win it. the twins also get good long relief from guerrier and eyre when necessary.

anyone who doubts the twins bullpen should consider who has started this year for the team that's already won 94 games: santana and a bunch of rookies (boof bonser, matt garza, scott baker, etc.). sure, brad radke won 12 games but he's been out since late july and they haven't missed a beat. we know the liriano saga but they still have had no dropoff since losing liriano. the only other experienced starter is carlos silva but he's been worthless this year. so how have they won despite a crap rotation following santana? because of the bullpen.

 

Pastor, I would not write off the Tigers because they're young. They have Pudge, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Placido Polanco and Sean Casey, and then there's Jim Leyland. That's some good experience. And say whatever you want about Kenny Rogers, the joke before the All-Star Break would be that he would implode the moment the Tigers needed Rogers to win crucial games in August and September -- tonight he's going for his seventh straight victory.

You do have a point about the Yankees owning Detroit. One thing struck me, though -- the Yankees outscored the Tigers 27-14 in taking 3 of 4 back in May; the Yankees outscored the Tigers 11-9 in taking 2 of 3 last month. With success comes confidence, and given that they've done it for an entire year now, I don't think Detroit is the same team that got thumped back in May and still needed to prove they weren't a fluke.

As for the Twins' starting pitchers, sure, they got some question marks. But it's not like the Yankees don't with Johnson's erratic season and Mussina's health. And Rivera's got to show he's all the way back.

 

Because they won't play the Tigers is the ALDS, they'll play with wild card Twins.
And if the Tigers get by the A's --- doubtful when Kenny "choke' Rogers is your "ace" -- they will get annihilated by the Yanks in the ALCS.
As much as I hate the Yankees, they will cakewalk into the World Series.
And I still believe there will be a Subway Series (suck on that BY[D]H) although the Mets will struggle to get there. Sorry, but the Stros ain't winning the Central and no one else worries me in the NL, even if the Mets don't have Pedro.

 

Rivera has pitched a few innings already and looked pretty good. Don't worry about him.

While I agree that the Yankees starters are a question mark, the issue has to do with the bats they are facing. The Twins offense isn't so meek, but it isn't the Yankees.

During the 4-game sweep against the Red Sox in Fenway Park, Abreu and Damon saw an average of 90-pitches per game. That is two batters receiving the near equivalent of a starters full pitch count.

Now, if Giambi is healthy enough to go, you know that he will add even more pitches to the count. After that you aren't exactly going to call the line-up free swinging.

So, while the Yankees pitching is a question mark, it is the offense they are facing versus the offense that the Twins pitching will be facing. Which team looks shakier by comparison?

 

Seriously, folks, the way the Yankees lineup is right now, BYH could be pitching for them and they'd still win the game, 22-20.
The Twins have nothing in their rotation behind Santana and even he is not all that great on the road (7-5, 3.50 or so, I believe).

 

I"m assuming the Twins will win the division.

 

As much as I hate to say it, Jeter-Cano.

I told a co-worker last night, "I fear the Metsies aren't going to last long in the playoffs." New York's National League franchise needs a young starter, a Dontrelle Willis-type.

The rotation, if Pedro can't pitch:
Glavine
Trachsel
Maine
El Duque

The rotation, if Pedro can pitch:
Pedro
Glavine
Trachsel
Maine

 

Not sure Cano's good enough to put his combo with Jeter quite on the level of Utley and Rollins, but it isn't far off.

 

Just a question --

What do those of you doubting the Twins pitching actually know about the Twins pitching?

I'll be the first to admit that it's shaky. But when I comment on the Yankees, at least I've seen that team play and am familiar with their personnel.

Boof Bonser has been lights out since being recalled from AAA. Take that for what it is. But if the Yankees ace is Chien-Ming Wang, why can't the Twins No. 2 pitcher be Boof Bonser? Compare their numbers over their last seven starts (I haven't, but I will).

Garza has filthy stuff. Filthy. He's very young, and likely won't be started for that reason, or, if he is started, won't be expected to go very long. If he goes to the pen, he bolsters an already excellent bullpen.

Rincon has been erratic lately. Neshek and Reyes have been nearly unhittable, although Neshek suffers sidearmers disease, in that he can hang a curveball exactly like BK Kim.

Of course the Twins hitting isn't New York's. No ones is. But Mauer is hitting .350. Morneau is over .300 with 35 homers and 100 RBI. Hunter has 30 homers despite missing a big chunk of the season. Hell, Cuddyer has 20-some homers and he wasn't even on the opening day roster.

And Minnesota sees pitches, just as well as New York. Castillo and Punto at the top foul a ton of balls off, and Mauer and Morneau are both very patient. Only hunter and Cuddyer are free swingers. Minnesota also runs a double leadoff lineup with Bartlett at the bottom, and he has donw a great job of getting on base from that spot.

Folks referencing the 2004 playoffs would do well to remember that the Twins won game one on a Santana shutout, and rallied to tie the game against Rivera in the eighth in the second game. They then had a lead and a chokehold on the series before New York came back against Nathan in their last at bat. So I don't know if it serves as evidence that the Yankees have dominated the Twins.

Finally, Radke starts tonight, and if he's effective he will likely start game three of the first postseason series.

 

Believe it or not, I hadn't looked this up.

Wang's last seven starts, he has pitched 45.2 innings while allowing 13 earned runs, for an ERA of 2.60.

Bonser's last seven starts, he has pitched 45.2 innings, allowing 13 earned runs for an ERA of 2.60.

You could look it up.

So I guess the Twins starters will be OK, eh?