Bayh decides not to run in 2008

OK, if you are Bayh/Warner/Richardson, etc., and you are looking at the field, the best way to the nomination is to position yourself as the anti-Hillary candidate. Someone is going to come out of Iowa/NH as the main challenger to Hillary. Obama is such a rockstar that he takes all of the energy out of the room and robs you of your fundraising ability and the media oxygen necessary to make the big push. So when push comes to shove and you have to sit down and make the big decision, the likelihood that Obama will run plays a big role in the decision.

 

Agreed, but Warner was out long before Obama was a factor.
And it's 2006, with an apparently unsolvable war in the middle of the room. Nobody knows anything yet.

 

Perhaps the Democratic party also informed him it would be best for all concerned to be Richard Lugar-like and become a Senator-for-Life, thus keeping the seat a Democratic hold. More than likely, if he didn't hold the seat, a Republican would. Given how tight Democratic control is right now, having Bayh voting in the Senate means a lot more to Democrats than him running for prez.

 

Can't the same be said for Sens. Clinton and Obama, tough?

 

No, because the NY and IL state Republican parties are in shambles. The NY party got historically trounced last month and would have no obvious candidates for a Senate race. The same goes for the IL party. And NY and IL both have Dem governors, so there is no doubt that their temporary replacements would be Dems (as opposed to IN, which has a GOP gov).

 

Bob Cook: I don't think Bayh has a "Senator for Life" because Indiana has a history of being a politically competitive state, although in recent years it has been hard to be competitive because all incumbents have a bigger financial advantage than ever.

 

Honestly, I don't know that it's anything more than a lack of desire to open himself and his family up to the kind of withering scrutiny all national candidates are subjected to. I'm not sure any of us could pass that test. I couldn't.

 

It probably would have been better to just say that, instead of insinuating you knew of specific picadillos or whatever.

 

Then they made a huge error dropping out this early. The lesson of John Kerry is that no matter how unattractive a candidate you are, there's a chance you'll be the last one standing when everyone else implodes. We know nothing about Obama yet. He may be everything everyone is hoping he is, or he may falter. Long time to go, and if you drop out now out of fear of anyone, you messed up.

 

I agree. Remember in 92, when a number of Democrats backed away early from the prez race because Bush's post-Gulf war numbers looked so good? If Gore, Bradley, or even Jay Rockefeller had put their name in the hat, who knows if Clinton survives his initial difficulties? Bob Kerrey was really the only guy people were excited about who jumped in that year, and he proved to not be anywhere near as good a candidate as his resume indicated he might be.

 

No, Bayh will definitely be a Senator as long as he wants to. His last close race was when he became Governor in 1988 -- the first Dem in 20 years to win that post. His last three races (1992 for Gov, 1998 for Senate, 2004 for Senate) he won with 62, 64 and 62 percent of the vote. He is Indiana's favorite son.