Ben Carson: Bungling Surgeon

Bernie is even more optimistic than Ben:

 

Bulletin: Bernie leads a primary in a close neighboring state. Film at 10.

 

Jimmy Carter and JFK are the only non-incumbent Dems to win NH and be elected President. They have a pretty sad record in determining the nominee as well as Presidents Tsongas, Muskie, Kefauver, Hart and Hillary Clinton can attest.

 

I watched Trump interviewed on "Morning Joe" today, perhaps the first time I've seen him interviewed, instead of reading or seeing highlights.

This is the leader in the clubhouse? He was inarticulate, awkward, and didn't seem to have a grasp of anything. All of this "telling it like it is" that he does, I firmly believe he's just rambling in almost every situation now, then figures out how to support it after the fact.

For God's sake, Tony, Da Man, YF, and the rest of you, can you please nominate Rubio and get this nonsense over with?

You should know that Hillary Clinton will beat him (Trump) about 48 states to 2.

 

Missed it live. Listening to a replay of a portion of it now that they are re-running.

I don't think Trump has a grasp on the issues the way Rubio or Clinton do. They are both much bigger policy wonks than he is.

But, I don't think Trump is much different than Reagan in that he knows what he wants to do in a broad sense, and he'll leave the details to others.

What might worry me most about Trump, is we have no idea who the others might be, or how well they would do. Trump's made a lot of money, but he's done it with a very small team. He's used to be very involved in all the decisions.

Now, if you were going to give me the power to choose our next President from among the current GOP primary candidates, Trump would probably come in fourth, behind Rubio, Cruz, and Bush, in no particular order. But, since I haven't been given that power, I'm going to remain open to Trump.

And while you might say he's rambling, he's actually very good at staying on his message, no matter what the question is, and that's part of what is working for him.

Any marketer will tell you that you need people to hear your message/pitch repeatedly for them to accept it.

Morning Joe also played a segment put together by Mark Halperin. He interviewed people at a Trump rally in New Hampshire. They interspersed their answers to why they liked Trump, with lines from Trump speeches. The people were parroting Trump's lines word-for-word.

That's because Trump is constantly on the air. He does multiple press appearances every day. He does rallies that the press widely cover.

Rubio, Cruz, and Bush could do as many interviews as Trump if they wanted to. But, they don't. Like most politicians, they are afraid of these unscripted appearances. They're afraid of going off message, or creating news that they can't control.

But, they also lose opportunities to get their message across.

People think Trump is dumb. Trump is not dumb. He hammers away at a few central themes. He uses the same language. And people are buying it. And, the funny thing is, that this is mostly based on his own instinct.

Roger Stone quit the campaign because Trump would not spend money on internal polling. Other campaigns spend a ton of money -- and time -- poll testing messages, poll testing phrases, to see what works. Trump knows what works without any of this. It also helps explain why he's leaving other campaigns in the dust. They can't move as quickly as him, because they're too afraid to plow ahead with a message that isn't tested.

If someone wants to beat trump, they're going to have to emulate some of what he does. Not the bombast, not the divisiveness, but the fearlessness. They're going to have to stop being cautious, and campaign relentlessly for the nomination.

They're also going to need a clear, concise theme for their campaign.

Again, people laugh at Trump's, "Make America Great Again," slogan, but it resonates with people. It's easy for people to grasp. What's the rationale for a Rubio, Cruz, or Bush campaign? Can anyone here boil it down to something as simple as Trump's?

These professional, polished, politicians are getting crushed, because while they might understand politics, they don't know how to market themselves the way Trump does. It's actually kind of pathetic, and they need to learn from him, instead of just be horrified by him.

 

He casts a net 10 miles wide, but he's as deep as a rain puddle. And he's supported by people who either can't or don't want to think about anything but their own hatefulness. It's a perfect storm.

 

I've seen other Trump interviews. Trust me, Dick, it doesn't get any better. No evidence of any real in-depth understanding of the issues. But he's figured out that all he needs to do to keep his base hooked is keep spewing these simple-headed tough guy platitudes while conveying that sneering unapologetic Trump "attitude." It reminds me a lot of the Sarah Palin lunacy a few years ago with millions of people blinded to the fact that this person is a grotesquely and embarrassingly unqualified fraud simply because they really dig the external image.

I think it ties into Alma's earlier posts about how the Republican party has changed (and dumbed itself down) in recent times. Huge chunk of the Republican base no longer seems to want genuinely qualified candidates as much as they do entertaining camera-friendly cartoon characters.

 

You guys say this like it's a bad thing.

Is there a reason why a better candidate, with a broader understanding of the issues couldn't demonstrate their talents, while also making a broad, populist pitch to disaffected voters, who are upset and unsettled in the current economy?

And, there's a reason why a significant portion of the Republican electorate is upset with traditional Republican candidates.

Voters have demanded -- since at least the midterm election of 2010 -- and Republican candidates/elected officials have promised, that they would do some specific things, like build a wall on the border, defund Obamacare, hold the line on spending, etc.

And then they did none of those things.

Republicans have no one but themselves for creating the current situation, where their voters are disaffected. They created the perfect storm, that allowed Trump to seize on these issues.

They aren't issues that Trump made up on his own. They are all supposedly Republican issues.

 

All of that is great for a candidate looking to appeal to the dumbest people our country has to offer.

It couldn't be worse for an actual president.

You act like the reason Republicans haven't done those things is because they haven't screamed about it loud enough or "told it like it is." Like it or not, those things haven't been possible within the constraints of two-party governance. Something Trump has shown no indication he's even aware of.

 

Why do we continue to pretend that the biggest part of his appeal is not that he's really famous?

 

If you want to attract a majority of the electorate, you need to appeal to the dumbest people too. Dems actually understand this much better than the GOP.

The people least interested in the political/electoral process aren't going to get off their couch, and get involved, thanks to high minded, policy heavy campaigns.

Obama was praise in 2008 for getting people who weren't previously involved/interested in politics to join his campaign. He didn't get Pookie excited by talking policy. He talked about "Hope & Change" and he sold himself, his personal narrative, and his African-American background.

What Trump is doing is not very different. He's getting people who might not normally vote in a caucus or primary, let alone attend a rally, involved. They're his biggest fans. They're attracted to his simple message of, "Make America Great Again." They find his personal narrative of "building a great company" appealing, and find his celebrity status enticing.

This is so similar to Obama's 2008 campaign, it's uncanny. Yet, while Obama was praised for it, Trump is supposed to be embarrassed by it.

Bullshit. The point of a campaign is to win. Trump's running his campaign with the goal of winning.

And, if you think Obama connects with, or respects his least informed supporters, you're kidding yourself. he thinks they're just as stupid as you think Trump's least informed voters are. Obama even fooled high minded voters with promises to close Gitmo (in the first year!), which he knew he would/could never do. And liberals fell in love with him thanks to his empty promises. Obama's campaign was sorely lacking in specifics, especially in specifics that could actually be implemented.

Why only Trump understands this, I don't know.

 

It's absolutely a huge part of it.

He had the best name recognition going in. He focused on an issue -- immigration reform -- that has wide appeal in the Republican primary electorate. And, he's sucked up all the air. He's given his opponents few opportunities to gain on him.