Bob Ryan: I don't think the "average" fan cares about advanced metrics in MLB

When it comes to presenting advanced stats, in print, online or on screen, it comes down to two things.

1) Judicious use of those stats. Put them in the hands of Tim McCarver, and you're going to want to tear your hair out after a half-hour.

2) Make them relatable. When I hear that Dallas Kuechel is serving up ground balls at a 67 percent rate, that means something to me. It means they're not driving the ball or lifting the ball on him. And that is an advanced stat.

 

IIRC, you get a bit of a "cascade" effect by having guys on base, so you should try to have guys more likely to get on base at the top of your order. If your leadoff hitter is your best hitter, then it's more likely that your #2 hitter will come up with someone on base, and if hitters #1 and #2 are your best hitters, then it's more likely hitter #3 will have guys on base, etc. The more players on base, the more pressure it puts on the opposing pitcher, and it limits the shifts the defense can do. However, I don't believe it's a huge effect.

 

Correct. Because third comes up with two outs and none on more often than any other spot in the lineup.

 

I remember reading years and tears ago that the Red Sox batted Jim Rice third instead of fourth because it would get him 30-40 more plate appearances a season.

The names might be different, but the concept is the same.

If you play 162 games, each spot in the batting order would be the last person to hit in the game 1/9th of the games or 17.9 more at bats per elevated spot in the order (I know that changes on the strength of the hitter before you, but I'm not figuring that shit out now). So if you had a third hitter batting first, that would be between 34-36 more plate appearances a year. Is that worth giving up the leadoff guy gets on, steals second, bunted to third, driven home by the third or fourth hitter? How often does that gameplan actually happen?

If I was playing in Colorado, I would go for the everything at the top style, but if I was in the Astrodome, I would stick with the traditional.

 

Bill James used to maintain that the difference between an "optimal" lineup (batting order in order of descending OPS) and a batting order based purely on conventional standards (highest OBP leading off, highest SLG hitting 3rd/4th, etc etc) would probably only be about a dozen runs a season (which would amount to about one win).

I don't know if that's still "prevailing wisdom" or not.

 

Right, the issue is generally not in what order the batters hit, but WHO is in the lineup. Like when the Braves used to play Henry Blanco (a .200 hitter) over Javy Lopez (who hit 20-30 homers every year) because Greg Maddux preferred to pitch to him. Whatever advantage Maddux got (or thought he got) was more than offset by taking your 5-hole hitter out of the lineup in favor of the league's worst hitter 30 times a year.

That said, if you pull a Dusty Baker and hit Zack Cozart and his .290 OBP leadoff in front of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce all year, you're costing yourself runs and probably victories.

Going way back, people used to criticize Mickey Mantle for not being "an RBI guy" (he had only four 100-RBI seasons in his career). But if you notice, the Yankees had low-OBP players like Bobby Richardson (.299 career OBP) and Tony Kubek (.303 career OBP) hitting in front of him for much of his career. There wasn't often a guy on base for Mantle to drive in. Richardson and Kubek hit 1-2 in front of Maris and Mantle almost the entire 1961 season, and neither one scored even 85 runs. That's hard to do.

 

I do like the idea of Votto and Mantle hitting first.

The downside is after the first run through the order, Mantle would have the pitcher and catcher hitting in front of him.

 

I openly advocated the Braves hitting Chipper Jones leadoff late in his career. He was an OBP machine right to the end.

 

I remember reading an article in Sports Illustrated when I was a kid in the 1960s about a sabermetric predecessor to James who contended that teams should always put their best hitter in the leadoff spot. Then in the 1965 All-Star Game, NL manager Gene Mauch tried it out and had Willie Mays lead off. Mays homered to start the top of the first.
PS: Not only that, but Mays played the whole game! Probably a Players' Association grievance if that happened today.

 

He is 83.