Brexit or how I'll make a killing in forex

Brexit must be affecting everyone else, too. The U.S. economy grew at an anemic 0.7 percent in the quarter (but a new final revision comes out at 8:30 am tomorrow). and supposedly we are the creme of the crop of the world right now. Euro area GDP was 0.5 percent in the first quarter. The lazy journalist's go-to on stories like this, is to sum it up with a simplistic cause -- it's Brexit! But the effects of Brexit haven't even occurred yet. And the whole world is in a malaise that took another downturn in the first quarter (8 years into a recovery; the third longest recovery in history meaning that we are likely closer to recession than not). ... that anchor on the world's economy has zero to do with Brexit. It has everything to do with way too much leverage.

BTW, when we do see the effects of Brexit, there will be two pieces. There will be economic activity from the Continent that has to leave London. For example, London as a financial center for Europe. There will also be decreased regulation that frees up parts of England's economy. You can't judge the aggregate effect immediately. In the long-run, England will undoubtedly be better off, even if there are short-term dislocations.

 

Yes, there is definitely a wait and see attitude. And businesses don't hire, invest, etc. when there is uncertainty.

But what I was giving isn't anecdotal. Looking at a weak GDP number and attributing it to "Brexit" is what was anecdotal. ... EVERYWHERE in the western world saw a slowdown (from anemic growth to begin with) in the first quarter. You can argue that UK GDP growth was much worse than the U.S. and try to attribute that to Brexit. ... but during this "recovery" over the last 8 years, U.S. growth has routinely outpaced the UK, which has an economy with unique structural problems that were there long before the Brexit vote. In the first quarter of LAST year when the UK grew at half the pace of the U.S. was that Brexit too?

 

Anytime you want to respond to the substance of what I post. ... I am here. *I* am not the one hammering anything into a world view. When I post something based on reason, and you ignore the reasons I gave and hit me with, "I don't think it is so far fetched," you are showing your stripes. ... as usual. The difference is, you have a "read a story in Bloomberg" knowledge of what you are talking about most of the time. You show zero ability to think independently. If you didn't think it was so far fetched that the Loch Ness Monster is hurting UK economic growth, it would be about as substantive of a post.

Brexit is having an effect on the UK's economy. It's probably not a very pronounced effect, given that the UK's economy wasn't growing much anyhow -- take away Brexit and the UK is VERY LIKELY not growing much at the moment. How can I reason that out? Because NOBODY'S economy in what are very similar countries, is growing very much at the moment. If some UK companies that were muddling along sideways feel uncertainty because they don't know how Brexit is going to play out. ... in an environment in which they were muddling along ANYHOW, it makes Brexit pretty irrelevant. Take away Brexit and they were muddling along, going nowhere -- for reasons much bigger than Brexit. Implicit in what you posted is that the UK was going to see solid economic growth for the quarter. ... but damn, Brexit killed that. I know you WANTED that (who is the one with a world view?) And it's just not true. The UK was going to have a weak quarter with or without Brexit, just as the entire Eurozone area did (but don't respond to that -- what I posted -- when you can just take a lame shot at me).

My "world view" is a completely different question. In a short / intermediate term time period, of course Brexit will have an affect on the UK. There will be changes and dislocations. Dishonest people will use isolated anecdotes about those dislocations as evidence that fleeing from the EU was a mistake. It ignores the fact that in the long term, IF (and it is a big if), the UK doesn't revert to the same kind of overregulated mess that Brussels was imposing on its economy, Brexit will be liberating. The EU was a great idea, WHEN it is about open borders and no barriers to trade. What the EU has been in reality was all kinds of barriers to trade -- with a bunch of corrupt bureaucrats not really representing anyone in particular setting the terms of trade -- in a vast spiderweb of corrupt micromanagement and rules for the sake of making themselves seem relevant. While they create a few winners (in the case of the winners, a lot of it has been pure cronyism and corruption), they slowly destroyed economic activity and have done quite a bit of harm to their members. The bulk of the people living with it, are starting to get it. Unless the nature of the EU changes, I suspect the UK was just the first to abandon a sinking ship.