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Budget talks: This is getting nasty

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by printdust, Jul 13, 2011.

  1. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    Desk will think I'm paranoid, but I think it's interesting.

    In a bad economy, confidence is a necessary component for a recovery.

    It' always in the President's interest to talk up the economy and point to positive signs.

    How the press reacts to this is crucial. They can do the same and join the President in talking up the economy and looking for signs of hope. And they can be "surprised" every time bad news comes out.

    Or, they can ridicule the president for being out of touch. They can mock his sunny optimism. They can point to the dark clouds on the horizon and highlight any poor economic news.

    Then, the President is trapped.

    I'll let you figure out how the press has handled economic news over the last 10 years.
     
  2. J Staley

    J Staley Member

    Something that has always bothered me about some liberals is that they can be intellectual snobs. Some, like Bill Maher, seem to think anybody who has a religion is an idiot.

    However it doesn't take an intellectual snob to see the Tea Party as crazy. If you have any sympathies for the Tea Party, the historical and scientific "facts" spewed by its leaders has to bother you, even if the political "facts" they offer don't.

    They've shown repeatedly that they don't have the educational base that you should expect from a civic leader, especially those given legislation responsibilities.

    They weren't smarter in this negotiation, they were just more willing to be crazy.
     
  3. Starman

    Starman Well-Known Member

    We need to learn how to say the word: DEPRESSION.

    "Double-dip" and "greater recession" are euphemisms.

    It's a depression.
     
  4. J Staley

    J Staley Member

    I agree with you about collective confidence being key to economic recovery, but you suggesting the media has an obligation to spin it positively makes you sound like a fan who suggests the local media is supposed to help State U sell football tickets.
     
  5. Boom_70

    Boom_70 Well-Known Member

    Philosophy won't reward you for the hot stocks but you will also not be penalized if the tank.

    It's a case of one size does not fit all. I prefer not to live and die based on every piece of economic news that comes out. I am comfortable with a balanced portfolio for the long haul. It allows me to sleep better.

    There have been points in time when I have felt overall market is to high and have taken up a much bigger cash position in hopes getting buying opportunities.

    Certainly from a capital gains tax standpoint long term investing is better. Record keeping is easier also and I am lazy when it comes to detail.
     
  6. Armchair_QB

    Armchair_QB Well-Known Member

    It's not the media's job to cheerlead. It's also not the media's job to ridicule.

    It's the media's job to report the facts and point out when those facts contrast with the position being taken an elected official.

    That can be done without ridiculing someone. Ridicule is personal. Reporting is not.

    The ability to report on an issue in this way is one that appears to have been lost over the last 15-20 years.
     
  7. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I personally think the whole tea party movement is silly -- and not that different from the established political parties when you get down to the money financing it, and the interests really involved. Not the Joe Sixpack who buys the rhetoric. If you are going to base any of our political parties on Joe Sixpack and how he buys a bunch of rhetoric, honestly, they are no dumber or idiotic than democrats or republicans to me.

    But what you typed is kind of the snobbishness you talked about. If we are going to have an open society, they have a right to engage themselves in it. If you find anything they say or do irrational (personally for me, it starts -- but by no means ends with -- the stupidity that we are fighting another Boston Tea Party; we are not a colony being taxed without representation), address their message. But calling them too dumb, or crazy, does little for me. Show me why they are crazy, and then you have a compelling argument. Do it without calling them crazy, and you have done it even better, because then you are just relying on reason.
     
  8. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    If the other party in a negotiation believes you are crazy, and this strengthens your negotiating position, would you spend any time trying to convince them otherwise?
     
  9. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    I'm not saying they are obligated to cheerlead. I just think they should be consistent. They are not.

    They are currently looking for any sign of improvement and are constantly "surprised" when they see numbers showing the opposite.


    I'm pretty sure we're in agreement here.

    Under both Presidents with the last name of Bush, the press seemed very eager to point out how bad the economy was and to pain the President as out of touch when he tried to paint a rosy picture.

    That's fine. But be consistent.
     
  10. J Staley

    J Staley Member

    Point taken. I just assumed the crazy things people in that party have done -- just for quick example: suggest deadly gasses weren't bad because they are naturally occurring, say that the House, by itself can make laws, etc -- were well known here.
     
  11. J Staley

    J Staley Member

    So do you think that the Tea Party really was concerned as most people about the consequences of not raising the debt ceiling, but they knew that if they put that on the table that Democrats would see them as unstable and then they'd be in a power position?
     
  12. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Fair enough.

    I live on economic news, for what it's worth, but because it is part of my job, not because I try to trade on news. If you do that, you can count on that news already having been filtered through by the time you are executing your trade. That's my experience.

    But I am personally in 3 trades right now that involved me knowing zero about what is going on with the economy. It's a bit more complicated than this, but I am just trading on price momentum, using a specific discipline. That doesn't require me to look at anything but the trends in the movement of price of the assets in different ways. I am trading price, not economic news.

    As an example, I made money earlier this year selling contracts in random-length lumber. I had never touched that market, find it relatively illiquid, and don't know the nuances about about the factors that affect the price of lumber. I didn't want to touch that market, really, but I had never seen charts that fit what I am looking for that well.

    The price dropped off a cliff. I still have no idea what economic news it lined up with, or what kind of supply and demand factors might have been contributing. I never even bothered to try to figure out why. I was just focused on price momentum. I have a discipline and some charts that measure long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term price momentum for me, which are reasonably reliable, told me to sell that mother hard. Luckily, I was rewarded pretty nicely. I am not always rewarded, and have had a few days where I have gotten clobbered.
     
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