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California -- America's first failed state?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by TrooperBari, Oct 6, 2009.

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  1. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    Not exactly. Texas has the option to raise taxes a little and fix the deficit, they just don't want to. California, on the other hand, has extended itself as far as it realistically can.
     
  2. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    Fail is fail, no matter how you define it. The way you've explained it makes Texas sound even worse, its politicians willing to watch the state circle the drain even though they have the means to make it stop.
     
  3. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    Circle the drain? They've got a $12.5 billion/year budget deficit in the worst case scenario, and $35 billion in state debt, in a $1.2 trillion economy.

    California has a $25 billion/year deficit, $87 billion in debt and $500 billion in unfunded liabilities in a state economy of about $1.8 trillion.

    So California has a 50% larger economy, 100% larger deficit, 150% larger debt and the ridiculous amounts of unfunded liability.

    There's no comparing the two, other than to show how incomparable they are.
     
  4. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    Point is, Texas, with presumably more resources at hand, has a state government that is in terrible fiscal shape -- maybe not as bad as some states, but still bad. And, yeah, if you have a $25 billion deficit and are cutting government services beyond the bone to make up for it for fear any tax increase, in the slightest, will get you thrown out of office, you may well be circling the drain.
     
  5. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    The question is, how can Texas be in this position? According to Meg Whitman during the California gubernatorial campaign, Texas was the shiny city on the hill that California needed to emulate: Texas had no unfunded mandates, no loony-left propositions forcing required funding, no union medling, and no massive safety net. Oh, yeah, plus it has a business-friendly tax and regulation environment. And yet, $25 billion in the hole?
     
  6. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    $25 billion over two years, and that's the high end of the projection. $21 billion is more likely. The fact that they use a two-year budget is odd and partially contributing to the problem.

    An interesting look at how and why it happened:

    http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=521130
     
  7. 93Devil

    93Devil Well-Known Member

    "But the roots of this year’s shortfall can also be traced back to 2006, when the legislature changed the way the state’s public schools are financed. Before then, school districts relied primarily on local property taxes, which were capped at $1.50 per $100 of assessed value. A group of districts sued, arguing that reliance on the local property tax was not enough for them to provide an adequate education. The State Supreme Court agreed and tasked lawmakers to come up with an alternate way of funding school districts.

    Lawmakers lowered local property taxes down to $1.00, but allowed school districts to raise them to $1.04 with a vote of the school board and to $1.17 with a local referendum. The legislature agreed to make up the difference in funding and increased the state’s corporate income tax accordingly. Those tax revenues have not met expectations, however, and state officials have found themselves responsible for a larger share of school funding than they had hoped. "

    So they lowered everyone's property taxes to keep their asses in office.

    We lowered your taxes!!!

    It will eventually come to this in America - We will stop having school buses.
     
  8. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I haven't followed this thread, so I don't know if it was mentioned. ...

    Illinois has a $13 billion deficit and its municipal bonds have the highest spreads (which measures the perceived risk of default) of any state. They are also one of the biggest issuers of those bonds in the country, because their legislators refuse to cut costs or raise taxes (although they are very close to the first income-tax increase in two decades), so they rely on debt to finance what has become a bigger and bigger mess. Their bonds have become some of the most expensive to insure.

    The risk premium priced into Illinois's 10-year bonds is more than 2 percentage points above a broader muni-market benchmark. A year ago, that spread was less than 1 percentage point.

    And yet bottom fishers have been buying up those new issues. ... They are betting that the Federal government will bail the state out before they allow the state to default. That is scary. If the government had never gotten into the business of bailouts, it would force a state like that to get its ship in order rather than rely on more and more debt. It's particularly scary when you look at the state's pension fund. We are only a decade away from a point where the state could be paying out more to retirees than it has money in its pension fund, which makes buying long-term muni bonds that will come due when the pension fund runs dry a crazy risk. If they stay on this course, the spreads are only going to widen and eventually the state will either go belly up or have to rely on another entity to bail it out.

    There was a story today on this in the WSJ covering everything I just summarized.
     
  9. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    As long as the government can keep printing money to cover all this, we can all keep our services and our low taxes, right? No comeuppance?
     
  10. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    The state of Illinois doesn't print money. The Federal Reserve does. What Illinois can do is issue bonds, or take on debt. The more in debt they are, and the more fiscally irresponsible their legislators look, the more risky those bonds appear -- to the credit-rating agencies (which granted are often useless), but more importantly to investors. So in order to keep issuing debt, they need to offer higher and higher yields. They have essentially turned what in normal times should be low-yielding municipal bonds, whose benefit is that they are tax-free, into junk bonds that have to pay high yields to attract investors. Those high yields lead to several consequences: There will be a point that their auctions will fall flat. It's the point that investors feel that Illinois is trying to sell them the Brooklyn Bridge. Even if they don't reach that point, though, the amount of money they have to pay to service their debt is getting greater and greater, which in turn means that they are turning a debt problem into an even worse debt problem. They are taking a big gamble on the economy improving, but if that doesn't happen, they run the risk of running out of time -- the way someone financing a lifestyle on credit cards does when they get too far in over their head.

    One of the only reasons there are bottom-feeders out there buying those kinds of muni bonds is that the yields are much higher than they are for similar investments and they believe an angle will swoop in with a bailout if necessary. It's gambling, though.
     
  11. Pancamo

    Pancamo Active Member

    103K jobs were created in December and unemployment dropped to 9.4%.

    No need to worry, the recovery is on.....
     
  12. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    125k people entered the workforce, more than the jobs created.

    Unemployment "dropped" because a number of people gave up and therefore the government doesn't have to count them in the official statistic.
     
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