California -- America's first failed state?

I'm thinking the skilled labor part of the equation isn't a big concern.

 

Legislative Analyst's Office forecasts a deficit of $1.9 billion in 2013, surplus by 2014 and a surplus of $9 billion by 2017. I will believe it when I see it, but this is the same group that has been forecasting disaster previously. The estimates were a $13B deficit last year and $25B the year before that.

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/California-s-deficit-shrinks-to-1-9-billion-4037701.php

Increased taxes on the wealthy are considered a large part of the solution. Not clear what part of the budget is represented by tax receipts from the porn industry.

 

Those numbers are likely assuming two things, both of which are very much subject to change:
1) The newly-taxed wealthy don't leave the state en masse because of the higher taxes.
2) The Democrat supermajority in the legislature sticks to the plan and actually pays down some of the debt rather than saying, "Hey, we have a surplus! Let's restore some of the stuff we cut a few years ago and start up some new programs while we're at it!"

 

Don't believe a forecast more than two years out.

 

That's true. However ...

... is a bunch of shit. The new taxes amount to a $20,000 increase for a person making $1 million. If they're going to leave the state, fuck 'em. They aren't. Closing costs on selling their homes would be a fuck of a lot more than that, not to mention their homes themselves would garner more than $500,000 in profits and thus be subject to capital gains taxes.

So, fuck 'em if they say they're leaving. They aren't.

 

Texas and Wyoming would have a lot more millionaires if all they cared about were state income tax rates.

 

Pretty good story from Reuters on San Bernardino's bankruptcy, caused by millions upon millions owed in pension debts to city and state unions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/us-bernardino-bankrupt-idUSBRE8AC0HP20121113

 

Correlation ≠ causation.

There are a lot of factors involved here, including this hugely important one that's conveniently left out in the rush to blame unions:

In addition to the two biggest employers in the region going by the wayside, causing (there's that word again) thousands upon thousands of jobs to vanish, these cities also made poor financial decisions:

So, yes, pensions are a factor. One factor among many.

There is plenty of blame to go around. But damn, do some people love putting all the blame on workers.

 

Of course they are! I heard it on Fox News!!!1!!!!

 

California's governor is, basically, a rock star. Again.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-cap-brown-20121119,0,133228.column

 

Legislators had the taxpayers pay for repairs on cars they then bought from the state.

http://www.presstelegram.com/breakingnews/ci_22130325/california-lawmakers-fixed-state-cars-taxpayers-dime-before

Absolute crooks.

I love being lectured at how the taxpayers need to pay more in taxes.

 

And of course the fact that one guy living in a $3 million house can pay far, far less in property taxes than his neighbor living in a $3 million house, because they bought at a different time, doesn't help.

Some Californians probably do need to pay more in taxes because their property tax system is so screwed up and patently unfair. I pay the same property tax rate as my neighbors, as the richest guy in town, and as the poorest property owner in town. Not true in California.