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Chevy Volt a Failure - GM to Layoff 1,300

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L), Mar 2, 2012.

  1. Armchair_QB

    Armchair_QB Well-Known Member

    Keep dreaming.
     
  2. Azrael

    Azrael Well-Known Member

    Interesting idea here about computers and electric cars going forward.

    www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/02/15/autonomous_cars_and_electric_vehicles_a_match_made_in_heaven.html

    I also wonder if maybe we haven't buried the lede on some of these Tesla stories: that their Supercharger stations can completely refill an 85kW battery in an hour. That may turn out to be the company's most profitable longterm contribution to EVs.
     
  3. 93Devil

    93Devil Well-Known Member

    I dreamed of getting an Iphone when they first came out. Then a few years later Verizon was giving me one when I renewed my account.

    I loved the Tivo technology when I first saw it, now it comes with cable subscriptions.

    Technology gets cheaper, not more expensive. This is technology.
     
  4. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Re: an 85 kWh battery and a fast charger. ... Tesla didn't contribute those things to EVs.

    Tesla didn't come up with the ability to make a high-capacity lithium-ion battery. And it hasn't solved the problem of how expensive they are to manufacture.

    Lithium Ion batteries cost around $650 per kilowatt hour to make. That Tesla battery contributes at least $50,000 to the cost of that car.

    Anyone trying to sell these cars into a mass market has a problem on their hands. Add capacity and make the cars way too expensive to even try to compete with gasoline-powered cars, or put in a much lower capacity battery to try to shave cost. Chevy, Nissan, etc. have gone with "lower capacity" to try to at least put the car in the "somewhat affordable" category.

    The reason there aren't fast chargers all over the place is that there aren't cars with high capacity batteries. Nobody is going to go to the significant expense of installing chargers all over the place for batteries that aren't in cars because they are way too expensive to produce to make them viable for mass production.
     
  5. 93Devil

    93Devil Well-Known Member

    http://nwpr.org/post/future-energy-storage-electric-cars-batteries

    The company that can produce a better car battery will be very, very rich. It will happen. Just a matter of time.
     
  6. Azrael

    Azrael Well-Known Member


    Who said they did?
     
  7. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Indeed. The company that can come up with Jetsons-style hover cars will be very rich, as well.
     
  8. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Fully quote my post, because there was context.

    You said: "I also wonder if maybe we haven't buried the lede on some of these Tesla stories: that their Supercharger stations can completely refill an 85kW battery in an hour. That may turn out to be the company's most profitable longterm contribution to EVs."

    A supercharger only has a place in a world in which there are high capacity batteries out there to be recharged. My post said, 1) Tesla didn't contribute high-capacity batteries to the world (so no long-term profitable contribution there), and 2) We didn't need Tesla for high-capacity chargers. The technology exists (so no long-term contribution to EVs there either). Nobody is installing them anywhere because it makes no sense for anyone to go to the expense, hen the batteries they can recharge are ridiculously expensive and over decades nobody has been able to figure out how to produce them more inexpensively.
     
  9. Azrael

    Azrael Well-Known Member


    A quick-charge technology - like the Supercharger - made applicable to all EVs solves the chicken/egg problem of low EV sales due to extended recharge times - and extended recharge times due to low sales.

    Using a Tesla style supercharger, you might fully recharge a Nissan Leaf in half an hour.

    www.technologyreview.com/news/429283/will-fast-charging-make-electric-vehicles-practical/

    "The charging capacity of DC fast chargers varies. Some only deliver 20 kilowatts, but some experimental chargers deliver well over 100 kilowatts (in comparison, most 240-volt outlets will deliver 3.3 kilowatts). A 50-kilowatt charger would be more than enough to charge a Nissan Leaf to 80 percent capacity within half an hour (it has a 24-kilowatt-hour battery pack and less than 100-mile range). Charging times will vary widely depending on the temperature outside for the Leaf, but less so for other cars that have better battery cooling systems (see “Are Air-Cooled Batteries Hurting Nissan Leaf Range?”). But the standards for DC fast chargers are evolving—not all electric vehicles have fast-charging outlets (GM’s Volt doesn’t have one, for example), and adapters may be required for those that do. Only a couple of hundred have been installed so far in the United States."


    Which was my original point. If someone figures out how to make a viable fast charge solution applicable to all EVs, it would spur EV sales. And create a further market for recharging infrastructure.
     
  10. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Nobody is installing those things at that cost.

    You need a high capacity battery to get any range. Something the Nissan Leaf doesn't have -- and won't have anytime soon, given the cost of producing lithium ion batteries with capacity.

    Forget the charger cost for a second. Let's say you had high-capacity chargers all over the place, the way you have gas stations. With your Nissan Leaf, you'd drive for an hour or an hour and 15 minutes. And then have to recharge for for a half hour. It's not very practical.

    But then there is the cost issue -- not just of the battery, but of the high-capacity chargers -- on top of it. According to the thing you just linked to, each one of those can cost $100,000 + installed.

    There is absolutely no incentive to install them anywhere for anyone. There is no practical way you are going to make back what would be a ridiculously hefty investment. It's not a chicken and the egg thing. Having cars with batteries that are high enough capacity to make them practical for anything other than commuter cars is way too expensive. And having chargers that could recharge those batteries any quicker than hours of sitting there is way too expensive. That is two eggs right there. They haven't found the chicken yet.

    Which is why Tesla didn't contribute anything profitable to EVs by throwing up less than a dozen high capacity chargers that nobody will be practically use anytime soon. In fact, it was probably downright stupid given their cashflow problems.
     
  11. Azrael

    Azrael Well-Known Member


    You don't think there's a business model serving commuter cars in US urban centers?

    I do.

    In fact, I'd do the opposite of what Tesla has done. I'd get out of the car business all together. And rather than install my Fast-Az superchargers out along the highway to prove that one day long distance road trips will be possible in my supercar EVs, I'd build recharging stations in urban and suburban settings right now to attract early adopters of cars like the Leaf and the Volt and the Prius plug-in. I'd do this in partnership with all the car manufacturers, who'd help fund my endeavor because it's a huge chicken/egg sales tool for them.
     
  12. Boom_70

    Boom_70 Well-Known Member

    Quick back of napkin # , how much would you charge for a recharge? Lets assume that it takes an hour for full recharge. Seems like $25 per hour would be about right from the market without accounting for what the electricity actually costs. Say that you had 5 charging stations at an investment of $500,000.
    5 cars an hour would generate $125 per. It would take 20 hours to charge 100 cars and bring in $2500. You would also have to factor in cost of your land. In the Northeast in desirable locations this cost would be fairly high.
     
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