Chevy Volt a Failure - GM to Layoff 1,300

Bamadog · Feb 22, 2013

The Big Ragu said:

The Big Ragu said:

Azrael said:

One hour to fully charge the car in the story at the supercharger in the story.
Click to expand...

Again, making the car silly expensive and impractical for anyone except someone with FU money and a love of EVs.

As an aside -- and I am being serious, because I would love to put my money where my mouth is on this -- the only thing stopping me from taking $10K right now and shorting 250 + shares of Tesla stock is that I can't predict whether politicians will prop the company up to avoid the embarrassment of the oncoming stories about it running out of money. Unless Tesla is holding back on something -- and there is no evidence of that -- it is going to run out of money within the next half year, and with its history of not being able to produce any cars, I can't see how it starts generating enough revenue quickly enough to even make interest payments on its massive debt -- even with the amnesty they got from the Feds on making payments on the half billion of public money they got.

Without the Federal government involved, if the company has to rely on yet another secondary offering or mining the debt markets again, I don't think there is penny out there for it. At this stock price, with the way it is bleeding money, it would be the biggest no brainer short there is -- which is why there actually is all the short interest in the stock. Unfortunately, there is a wildcard. You can't do that kind of simple analysis with a company like this, because politicians have their hands in it. And I don't want to bet against political glad handing.
Click to expand...

FYI. ... Didn't have a chance to post this Wednesday or Thursday, but Tesla missed on its earnings. Bigger loss than analysts had expected.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/21/investing/tesla-stock/

http://blogs.wSportsJournalists.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/02/21/tesla-hits-a-pothole/

I listened to the conference call. Same pattern. The company is missing promised targets. But Musk was on the call promising all kinds of big things. Said they will be profitable this quarter. Analysts have a consensus of a 17 cent loss for the quarter. There was a lot of skepticism. He has made a lot of promises in the past and the company doesn't execute.

They have definitely ramped up production of cars, but they spent a ton more to produce them than was promised. Here is one big thing to me, to follow up on my post that I quoted before this. ... They have been trumpeting 10s of thousands of orders, and to believe in the company, you have to believe that the only thing between them and a successful car company is being able to meet the demand. But hidden in there was that 1,500 customers canceled their orders in the fourth quarter. I wonder how many more have since the negative publicity? On top of that, even if they could execute, and they haven't, the stock is super expensive on any earnings basis.

I still won't short it for the reasons I said. But anyone who owns that stock is insane, in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Musk is little different than other automotive hucksters like Malcolm Bricklin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Bricklin and his silly Bricklin SV-1 or Geraldine Elizabeth "Liz" Carmichael and the three-wheel Dale car http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dale_sports_car. But at least they didn't demand billions of dollars of infrastructure be constructed to recharge the playthings of plutocrats.

Azrael · Feb 22, 2013

"demand" ?

"billions" ?

Boom_70 · Feb 22, 2013

The Big Ragu said:

The Big Ragu said:

Azrael said:

One hour to fully charge the car in the story at the supercharger in the story.
Click to expand...

Again, making the car silly expensive and impractical for anyone except someone with FU money and a love of EVs.

As an aside -- and I am being serious, because I would love to put my money where my mouth is on this -- the only thing stopping me from taking $10K right now and shorting 250 + shares of Tesla stock is that I can't predict whether politicians will prop the company up to avoid the embarrassment of the oncoming stories about it running out of money. Unless Tesla is holding back on something -- and there is no evidence of that -- it is going to run out of money within the next half year, and with its history of not being able to produce any cars, I can't see how it starts generating enough revenue quickly enough to even make interest payments on its massive debt -- even with the amnesty they got from the Feds on making payments on the half billion of public money they got.

Without the Federal government involved, if the company has to rely on yet another secondary offering or mining the debt markets again, I don't think there is penny out there for it. At this stock price, with the way it is bleeding money, it would be the biggest no brainer short there is -- which is why there actually is all the short interest in the stock. Unfortunately, there is a wildcard. You can't do that kind of simple analysis with a company like this, because politicians have their hands in it. And I don't want to bet against political glad handing.
Click to expand...

FYI. ... Didn't have a chance to post this Wednesday or Thursday, but Tesla missed on its earnings. Bigger loss than analysts had expected.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/21/investing/tesla-stock/

http://blogs.wSportsJournalists.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/02/21/tesla-hits-a-pothole/

I listened to the conference call. Same pattern. The company is missing promised targets. But Musk was on the call promising all kinds of big things. Said they will be profitable this quarter. Analysts have a consensus of a 17 cent loss for the quarter. There was a lot of skepticism. He has made a lot of promises in the past and the company doesn't execute.

They have definitely ramped up production of cars, but they spent a ton more to produce them than was promised. Here is one big thing to me, to follow up on my post that I quoted before this. ... They have been trumpeting 10s of thousands of orders, and to believe in the company, you have to believe that the only thing between them and a successful car company is being able to meet the demand. But hidden in there was that 1,500 customers canceled their orders in the fourth quarter. I wonder how many more have since the negative publicity? On top of that, even if they could execute, and they haven't, the stock is super expensive on any earnings basis.

I still won't short it for the reasons I said. But anyone who owns that stock is insane, in my opinion.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking that Tesla hopes to be bought by one of the bigger auto companies at some point for their proprietary technology.

Bamadog · Feb 22, 2013

Azrael said:

"demand" ?

"billions" ?
Click to expand...

forgot the dollars. At least the Bricklin or the DeLorean for that matter required no additional infrastructure. Except wider parking spots to accommodate the gull-wing doors. It's been a long week in the prep basketball trenches.

cranberry · Feb 22, 2013

Bamadog said:

Azrael said:

"demand" ?

"billions" ?
Click to expand...

forgot the dollars. At least the Bricklin or the DeLorean for that matter required no additional infrastructure. Except wider parking spots to accommodate the gull-wing doors. It's been a long week in the prep basketball trenches.
Click to expand...

I think he's wondering where you got the words "demand" and "billions" out of Tesla's involvement in President Bush's $8 billion low-interest loan program to help jump-start technology and wean the country from its oil dependency.

The Big Ragu · Feb 22, 2013

Boom_70 said:

The Big Ragu said:

The Big Ragu said:

Azrael said:

One hour to fully charge the car in the story at the supercharger in the story.
Click to expand...

Again, making the car silly expensive and impractical for anyone except someone with FU money and a love of EVs.

As an aside -- and I am being serious, because I would love to put my money where my mouth is on this -- the only thing stopping me from taking $10K right now and shorting 250 + shares of Tesla stock is that I can't predict whether politicians will prop the company up to avoid the embarrassment of the oncoming stories about it running out of money. Unless Tesla is holding back on something -- and there is no evidence of that -- it is going to run out of money within the next half year, and with its history of not being able to produce any cars, I can't see how it starts generating enough revenue quickly enough to even make interest payments on its massive debt -- even with the amnesty they got from the Feds on making payments on the half billion of public money they got.

Without the Federal government involved, if the company has to rely on yet another secondary offering or mining the debt markets again, I don't think there is penny out there for it. At this stock price, with the way it is bleeding money, it would be the biggest no brainer short there is -- which is why there actually is all the short interest in the stock. Unfortunately, there is a wildcard. You can't do that kind of simple analysis with a company like this, because politicians have their hands in it. And I don't want to bet against political glad handing.
Click to expand...

FYI. ... Didn't have a chance to post this Wednesday or Thursday, but Tesla missed on its earnings. Bigger loss than analysts had expected.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/21/investing/tesla-stock/

http://blogs.wSportsJournalists.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/02/21/tesla-hits-a-pothole/

I listened to the conference call. Same pattern. The company is missing promised targets. But Musk was on the call promising all kinds of big things. Said they will be profitable this quarter. Analysts have a consensus of a 17 cent loss for the quarter. There was a lot of skepticism. He has made a lot of promises in the past and the company doesn't execute.

They have definitely ramped up production of cars, but they spent a ton more to produce them than was promised. Here is one big thing to me, to follow up on my post that I quoted before this. ... They have been trumpeting 10s of thousands of orders, and to believe in the company, you have to believe that the only thing between them and a successful car company is being able to meet the demand. But hidden in there was that 1,500 customers canceled their orders in the fourth quarter. I wonder how many more have since the negative publicity? On top of that, even if they could execute, and they haven't, the stock is super expensive on any earnings basis.

I still won't short it for the reasons I said. But anyone who owns that stock is insane, in my opinion.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking that Tesla hopes to be bought by one of the bigger auto companies at some point for their proprietary technology.
Click to expand...

That is the only way it can survive, and there has been a lot of speculation that it could be a takeover target.

The main hindrance to that happening, is that if you buy that company, you are buying more than $800 million in debt.

Boom_70 · Feb 22, 2013

The Big Ragu said:

Boom_70 said:

The Big Ragu said:

The Big Ragu said:

Azrael said:

One hour to fully charge the car in the story at the supercharger in the story.
Click to expand...

Again, making the car silly expensive and impractical for anyone except someone with FU money and a love of EVs.

As an aside -- and I am being serious, because I would love to put my money where my mouth is on this -- the only thing stopping me from taking $10K right now and shorting 250 + shares of Tesla stock is that I can't predict whether politicians will prop the company up to avoid the embarrassment of the oncoming stories about it running out of money. Unless Tesla is holding back on something -- and there is no evidence of that -- it is going to run out of money within the next half year, and with its history of not being able to produce any cars, I can't see how it starts generating enough revenue quickly enough to even make interest payments on its massive debt -- even with the amnesty they got from the Feds on making payments on the half billion of public money they got.

Without the Federal government involved, if the company has to rely on yet another secondary offering or mining the debt markets again, I don't think there is penny out there for it. At this stock price, with the way it is bleeding money, it would be the biggest no brainer short there is -- which is why there actually is all the short interest in the stock. Unfortunately, there is a wildcard. You can't do that kind of simple analysis with a company like this, because politicians have their hands in it. And I don't want to bet against political glad handing.
Click to expand...

FYI. ... Didn't have a chance to post this Wednesday or Thursday, but Tesla missed on its earnings. Bigger loss than analysts had expected.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/21/investing/tesla-stock/

http://blogs.wSportsJournalists.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/02/21/tesla-hits-a-pothole/

I listened to the conference call. Same pattern. The company is missing promised targets. But Musk was on the call promising all kinds of big things. Said they will be profitable this quarter. Analysts have a consensus of a 17 cent loss for the quarter. There was a lot of skepticism. He has made a lot of promises in the past and the company doesn't execute.

They have definitely ramped up production of cars, but they spent a ton more to produce them than was promised. Here is one big thing to me, to follow up on my post that I quoted before this. ... They have been trumpeting 10s of thousands of orders, and to believe in the company, you have to believe that the only thing between them and a successful car company is being able to meet the demand. But hidden in there was that 1,500 customers canceled their orders in the fourth quarter. I wonder how many more have since the negative publicity? On top of that, even if they could execute, and they haven't, the stock is super expensive on any earnings basis.

I still won't short it for the reasons I said. But anyone who owns that stock is insane, in my opinion.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking that Tesla hopes to be bought by one of the bigger auto companies at some point for their proprietary technology.
Click to expand...

That is the only way it can survive, and there has been a lot of speculation that it could be a takeover target.

The main hindrance to that happening, is that if you buy that company, you are buying more than $800 million in debt.
Click to expand...

It would be a buy if a company feels that it would be cheaper to buy Tesla for their technology, rather that create it for themselves.

Azrael · Feb 22, 2013

Companies are already looking to do likewise with Fisker.

The Big Ragu · Feb 22, 2013

Azrael said:

Companies are already looking to do likewise with Fisker.
Click to expand...

The Chinese are looking at the company. ... but it is a garage sale at this point. Whoever buys it is going to get it for a tony fraction of what the company was valued at a few years ago. It's sad.

To put it into perspective, someone is going to get whatever assets Fisker has for $300 to $350 million.

Fisker has blown through $1.2 billion of VC money and another $192 million in money from the U.S. government.

The main obstacle on this one is that the only companies circling around it are Chinese, including one that is state owned, and there are already people yelling about the fact that U.S. government money was invested. ... to a company that will potentially be sold to China, for less than 50 percent of what the U.S. just gave away to the company.

Bamadog · Feb 25, 2013

cranberry said:

Bamadog said:

Azrael said:

"demand" ?

"billions" ?
Click to expand...

forgot the dollars. At least the Bricklin or the DeLorean for that matter required no additional infrastructure. Except wider parking spots to accommodate the gull-wing doors. It's been a long week in the prep basketball trenches.
Click to expand...

I think he's wondering where you got the words "demand" and "billions" out of Tesla's involvement in President Bush's $8 billion low-interest loan program to help jump-start technology and wean the country from its oil dependency.
Click to expand...

Bush=not a conservative. And every president, even Reagan, has had this amazing goal of weaning us off "foreign oil." If that oil comes primarily from Mexico and Canada, what's the problem?

cranberry · Feb 25, 2013

Bamadog said:

cranberry said:

Bamadog said:

Azrael said:

"demand" ?

"billions" ?
Click to expand...

forgot the dollars. At least the Bricklin or the DeLorean for that matter required no additional infrastructure. Except wider parking spots to accommodate the gull-wing doors. It's been a long week in the prep basketball trenches.
Click to expand...

I think he's wondering where you got the words "demand" and "billions" out of Tesla's involvement in President Bush's $8 billion low-interest loan program to help jump-start technology and wean the country from its oil dependency.
Click to expand...

Bush=not a conservative. And every president, even Reagan, has had this amazing goal of weaning us off "foreign oil." If that oil comes primarily from Mexico and Canada, what's the problem?
Click to expand...

Not that you answered the question yet, but I think W would disagree with your assertion that he's not a conservative.

Football_Bat · Feb 26, 2013

Game-changer.

http://www.kcet.org/news/rewire/science/more-good-news-on-those-carbon-supercapacitors.html

If this pans out, we'll see electric cars that will compete with fossil fuel cars in price and performance.

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Chevy Volt a Failure - GM to Layoff 1,300

Bamadog Well-Known Member

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Chevy Volt a Failure - GM to Layoff 1,300

Bamadog Well-Known Member

Azrael Well-Known Member

Boom_70 Well-Known Member

Bamadog Well-Known Member

cranberry Well-Known Member

The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

Boom_70 Well-Known Member

Azrael Well-Known Member

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