Climate Change? Nahhh ...

OK, so it ain't a religion ... it's a cult. Don't clap long or loudly enough and your ass is in the crosshairs. And God help you if the wrong sort starts citing your stuff.

Roger Pielke Jr.

 

Looks like the religion was baptizing a bunch of folks in DFW.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/22/us/dallas-weather-flash-flood-warning/index.html

 

Pure coincidence that these 1,000 year events are happening all over the world, from pole to pole, at the same time.

Atmospheric CO2 levels are 50% higher than at the start of the industrial revolution and we're continuing to pump trillions of pounds of it out every year.

Oh well. No worries.

 

How often do 1,000-year events occur?

 

That would have never happened but for climate change.

 

Here lately? A lot more often than that.

Yeah, ok, Doc. Exaggeration for conversational emphasis. Make it hundred year event and I think that it's pretty defensible.

1-in-100-year floods happening so often, the term may change

 

Who said it did? Probably some all-in climate change worshippers who love reading that story!

(Paving everything in sight certainly doesn’t help. The 10-inches of rain can’t soak into parking lots and streets.)

 

Let's say we were only interested in the green-shaded areas (not in Puerto Rico) on this map:


There are 172 of those so-called Combined Statistical Areas. The probability in a given year that at least one such will experience a "1,000-year event" is in the neighborhood of 0.15.

Perhaps we might broaden our view to include all the Primary Statistical Areas (everywhere in this map that's shaded either green or tan). There are 558 of those (excluding Puerto Rico), so the probability that at least one will experience such an event in a given year is in the neighborhood of 0.32.

Now these aren't exact probabilities ... they're almost certainly too low, because such an event can manifest as rain, flood, wind, snow, maybe even locusts.

The point is that a "1,000-year event" occurring somewhere nearby ain't nearly as unlikely (and therefore informative re: the climate) as you'd think.

 

On the other hand, if you're looking for a reason to have a laugh at my expense (and, hey, who isn't?) given the water building up in my front yard ...

Guess who worked his ass off on Thursday and Friday repairing the irrigation system?

 

You know enough about statistics that you understand that pumping trillions of pounds of CO2 into the atmosphere annually isn't sustainable. The atmospheric level level has increased by 50% since the start of the industrial revolution. Because humans are selfish at heart, we'll continue to do so until the system starts to outright crater. The problem with that is that we're likely to be dealing with near irreversible damage by then.

I mean, what the hell, I'm gonna be dead in twenty years. It's just going to be an inconvenience to me, but watching the redwood forests burn and the polar ice caps shrink troubles me. You can have fun throwing rocks all you want, but pull up photos of the poles from space. It's real enough.

I would add in response to "Well, we're just little people. There's nothing much we can do that will make a difference" is that if enough of us cultists put pressure on government and industry we can make a difference over time. The longer we wait to start the steeper the repair curve gets.

 

And this is why @Alma is correct in his suggestion that ClimateChangeOlogy is very much like a religion for many people. One cannot object to or question even a snippet of the creed -- "Extreme weather event X is happening much more frequently!" -- without being accused of being a denialist (e.g., "You can have fun throwing rocks all you want, but pull up photos of the poles from space. It's real enough.").