College basketball 2009-10 running thread No. 1

That last three minutes or so to the Minnesota-OSU first half was one of the most enjoyable stretches you'll see all year. No timeouts, no fouls, just good players making very good plays.

 

I like that this happened, though, because it means coaches will be even more reluctant to foul when up 3 in the closing seconds. And that leads to much more exciting finishes, as I love tying 3s at the end. I think the good play is definitely to foul; as you said, how many times have teams successfully pulled off the missed free throw, get the rebound? Compared to the hundreds of times we've seen a tying 3. But if it makes coaches leery of doing it, fantastic. More tying 3-pointers!

I covered a game where the team fouled when up 3, the guy made the first, missed the second, but then they got the rebound and hit a 3 at the buzzer to win it. The coach of the team who fouled said it was the last time he'd ever foul when up 3. But what are the odds that would ever happen again?

 

They had four seconds and needed a perfect bounce - off of a free throw, which means Miss State has position......

I don't know what the percentages of that happening but I'll say this -- it is a HELLUVA lot less than 34.4 percent.

So let's review :

Option A - Let Bledsoe shoot a 3-pointer, which he makes 37 percent of the time.

Option B - Foul Bledsoe, a 68 percent free throw shooter and make him make one and then miss one perfectly which his team is able to put in. Now, given that Kentucky has missed about 270 free throws this year -- let's say conservatively - 125 of them were in a rebounding situation -- how many of those 125 do you think were offensive rebounded and putback by Kentucky? 10? (I bet it is less but lets say 10) - which is what, about eight percent?

So add up the 68 percent free throw shooter having to make one and miss one perfectly, the variable for the offensive rebound, which probably about 15 percent or so and then the variable for the putback, which is probably about eight percent (not too mention throwing in the percentage of free throws Miss State has allowed to be rebounded and putback)-- (and again, I am being very generous here) -- you have a play that is probably about what - 5 percent?

So it is your story that you'd rather let a guy take a shot he makes 36 percent of the time then make Kentucky beat you with a play that is, at best, about 5 percent of the time going to work?

Let's review - Option A - 36.6 percent of the time Option B - less than 5 percent of the time. Yeah, I can see why you'd pick option A...... :

Yes, that IS IDIOTIC and utter nonsense and anyone who is arguing otherwise is an idiot.

 

So you think Kentucky had a better than 34.4% chance of making the first, missing the second, getting the rebound, and making a basket?

 

And I know when I'm pulling for a team - say, the Lakers - and they're down 3 in the last five seconds, I dread the idea that the other team will foul instead of letting Kobe go for the tie.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with the strategy or the odds, but probabilities are built upon the idea of a nearly infinite number of repetitions. You lose against the odds a few times in a row as a coach, and somebody else will get to play the percentages.

 

I'd love to play poker against these people.

 

Variance is much more stable in cards - the value of each card is consistent. The value of each player's performance is not.

 

I'll say this first: I THOUGHT FOULING WAS THE RIGHT CALL IN THAT SPOT

Having said that, the 34% figure is meaningless. The question is whether they'd nail a 3 at the buzzer in that spot. FWIW, Kentucky today was 4-for-16 on 3s.

 

The thing that might have changed it, and yes, I think more people who follow basketball would agree that fouling was the right decision.
Fouling about 2 seconds later, though, was what State needed to do.
I didn't think about it, and neither did the MSU huddle, it seems, but fouling after few seconds go off the clock would have made it impossible to get two shots off following the intentional miss.
They fouled too early.

 

Clark Kellogg just intentionally said "valutility."

Christ, CBS, this is the best you have?

 

David Lighty with a mighty impressive four possessions. A solid defensive stop against the much bigger Sampson III leading to his own fastbreak layup. Then he runs down and snatches a rebound away from Sampson III and then goes right back down and scores on the break again.