College basketball thread...

Not surprising. There's probably a dozen people on this board who could take that faker for double figures.

 

Neitzel has not been good this season. Too much pressure for the little man to handle.

 

Weren't we discussing earlier how free throws don't matter?

 

Of course free throws matter. A team's free throw percentage, however, doesn't matter when it comes to predicting whether it will make the important free throws in the final minute of games.

Washington State shoots 75% as a team, but when they had to have them, it was Choke City. I don't think you would find anyone who would say, "Free throw shooting is going to get Washington State in the tournament."

 

No, but I guarantee you that you won't find anyone willing to bet on a team that shoots 58 percent from the line when the tournament comes around.
A team that shoots 58 percent for the season in manifestly more likely to do the same in crucial situations than a team that shoots 75 percent. The correlation is not perfect, but it's perfectly valid.

 

I have covered enough NCAA Tournaments to disagree with that. I've seen too many good free throw shooters choke, and too many bad free throw shooters turn clutch, to believe it's nothing more than either:

1) Luck
2) Balls
3) a combination of both.

 

Actually, in Washington State's case, FT shooting might well be what gets them there. Their offense is not good enough without them. Of course, this probably goes to No. 2 on your list as they are usually good. But they just got swept by the Bays because they could not hit FTs in the clutch.

 

Oooh, the credentials card is played.
I have also covered a great many NCAA tournaments and I'm telling you that your evidence is anecdotal at best. Over the long term, bad free throw shooting is bad free throw shooting and it will cost you at the end of the game.

 

But the point is, there is no long term. Once you get to the NCAA Tournament, it's one-and-done. And if there is any event in sports that proves past performance has little correlation with future results, it's the NCAA Tournament.

Even in terms of statistical markers, I'd put free throws far behind things like defensive field goal percentage, rebounding margin and turnovers. I'll take a really good rebounding team who doesn't turn it over much over a good free throw team any day, simply because you know the former is going to get more possessions over the course of the game.

 

And the goalposts dance.
Logic dictates that a bad free throw team will shoot worse under increased pressure, and not better. And statistics are not a "one and done" proposition. They always have a long-term element to them.
I'm not saying that free throw percentage is the completely determinative, or even the most determinative, factor, but come to me with a wager in the last five minutes of a close NCAA tournament game, and I'm not betting on the team that's 58 percent from the line.

 

That we are even pondering this is a damn fine reason that Mr. Stewart should have been given the ball on yesterday's last possession so he could attempt another 3.
Instead (and I like Jamont and appreciate Jamont's overall contributions) we saw Jamont run down in between a large group of orange-clad people, sort of out of control, and hoist one up.
Jamont too often tries to score too much.
He could serve as a great decoy at times, if he so chose, and clear others for good looks at the bucket.
When I played, I loved making a good assist as much as I did a bucket.

 

If you shoot 58 percent and the other team shoots 70, that is 3-4 points left on the line every night. You cannot give points away in close games. You might be able to pull poor free throw shooting off once of twice, but to go on a six-game winning streak against the best of the best, you must count every possible point. What about missing the front ends of one-and-ones?

Not saying that the free throws will cost Memphis the title, but it is big problem to overcome.

They are not Georgetown or UNLV of the 80s and 90s who can just show up with so much more talent, that they can overcome other deficiencies. Heck, I cannot remember if they were poor free throw shooting teams, but I do remember their talent level and the rest of the field was greatly separated.

And they were both knocked off by teams with lesser talent.