College Football 2016 Week 1 running thread

I'll bet anything that Houston is not as good as you think they are going to be. In fact, I'd bet that Oklahoma destroys them this weekend.

1) They are not sneaking up on anyone this year.
2) They are returning just 11 starters. I realize one of them is Greg Ward, but let's not get carried away.
3) Their two signature games last year: a) Louisville, which was looking past them because the game was sandwiched between Auburn and Clemson, and b) the bowl game in which Florida State would have rather have been anywhere except playing Houston in a bowl game.
4) Houston will be good. But I think you are way too optimistic about how good they actually are. They aren't even close to one of the four best teams in the country. That said, if they do somehow beat Oklahoma in week 1 (and I put the chance of that at very slim), they will instantly get playoff contender hype, especially with how relatively easy the schedule is after that.

 

I know Oklahoma has penchant for disappointing, especially in a season like this when expectations are high. They tend to do better when nobody expects much. But this season, I think they are for real. So I'll wait till they stumble to write them off. There are no weaknesses on that team on paper. They are one of the ten best teams in the country in offense, defense, special teams and I think they are very well coached. They have a tough schedule, but the Baylor, Ohio State and Oklahoma State games are all in Norman.

In any case, Oklahoma may disappoint, but if or when they stumble, it will be against Ohio State or Baylor or Texas. Houston is not the game that is going to kill their season. My bet is that Oklahoma handles this one fairly easily. The spread is what, 10, 11? I will bet Oklahoma wins by 15, 20.

 

One truism about KState, though, is that if you analyze what they have on paper you can add 2 wins to the total you would guess on Bill Snyder alone. KState is not going to be anything more than they usually are this year, but they will go to another bowl game. Their defense will be average for that conference actually. And they have a lot of pieces on offense -- backfield options that a lot of other teams would kill for. If anyone can figure out how to make the pieces fit together, it will be Snyder.

As for the Stanford game? Not a chance. But I would bet it stays closer than a lot of people think. I think the line is 14/15 or something like that. I think that may be about right.