East Coast Bias Bowl -- Running Super Bowl XLVI Thread

I don't blame the player, though. Once the coach called a play, it was his job to try to score. If they wanted to center the ball and kick, it has to come from the coach.

 

I'm surprised the spread is that large, but I will take your word for it. I wouldn't give that Patriots offense a 12 percent chance of scoring against that Giants defense in that situation, though.

This is a lot like the discussion of Sean Payton's onside kick in that there's a lot of focus on the statistical percentages and not as much on the game situation. Maybe Coughlin has never had confidence in Tynes. Maybe he saw those first two tries sneak in and decided he wasn't going to leave it up to a field goal. Maybe he saw that with Gronkowski in bad shape and nobody else getting deep, there was no way the Pats were going to get 20 yards on any one play, let alone string four of them together.

 

Unfortunately, this is one situation where you should pay attention to the stats because there is no sure thing. Its easy to remember Romo and the 2003 Giants-49ers but those are just the ones that failed. What's hard to recall is that the essentially XP was successful thousands of times over the same time frame, so in this instance stats football rules. "Flow" of the game has nothing to do with it.

 

I don't see how that can be the conclusion, unless you're saying a coach should do nothing but adhere to the spreadsheet at all times.

 

I am not an advocate of push by numbers (spreadsheet) football. But this is one instance, XP vs. giving ball back, that I kind of agree. Last night, I was all for taking the TD. After looking at the numbers now, I guess the XP/FG would have been better.

 

I missed the whole game chat but went through a few of the posts, but I will probably repeat much of what has already been said. Oh well, here it goes:

- I said Gronkowski's ankle was the biggest story going in and I think it ended up costing the Patriots in a big way. Gronk looked like he was 50-60 percent and -- who knows -- maybe could have caught that Hail Mary as time expired.
- Tom Coughlin can no longer be on a hot seat, at least in New York.
- Gisele needs to shut the hell up and tell it to her hubby.
- Patriots looked un-Patriot like with the 12-men penalty on the fumble recovery and the drops in crunch time.
- Eli has the quietest killer instinct I may have ever seen in professional sports.
- The Manningham catch was the biggest play of the game, just like the Tyree catch. It was a better throw than catch though (70-30).
- The Welker drop seemed to be more Welker's fault than Brady's. It wasn't a perfect pass, but Welker had two hands on the ball when the game was essentially on the line.
- I liked how Belichick let Bradshaw score that late TD, but too little too late.
- Commercials were pretty lame for the most part. The Seinfeld one had me laughing until Leno came in and stole another opportunity. The dog and the Doritos was cool too.
- The 12-men penalty by the Giants with under 20 seconds left totally screwed the Pats! Like eight seconds ticked off on the Pats and it only cost the Giants five yards! That rule needs to be tweaked.

 

Certainly the players involved have something to do with it, right?

Maybe it's 12 percent overall, but it's probably 25 percent when it's Tom Brady, and probably 1 percent when it's Mark Sanchez.

 

But likewise it's probably 25 percent against the Bills' defense and 1 percent against the Giants' defense.

Anyway, if it's 97 percent chance of winning with field goal and "only" 88 percent chance of winning with touchdown and give the ball back, that's still well within the cushion where a coach can reasonably consider other factors and make a call based on the game situation. And again, I would really question assigning the Patriots a 12 percent chance of scoring in that situation.

 

I think both teams did the right thing. Fuck the percentages. At that moment, the Giants were given a 100 percent chance of scoring. Nothing beats 100 percent. And the Patriots had more of a chance at a touchdown drive from the 20 with 57 seconds left than at a field-goal drive from the 20 with about 10 seconds left.

 

I think the bigger argument is whether the Giants should have taken a knee before the play and just kicked it.

Personally, in the moment, I thought the TD was preferable. It's so much easier to get into FG range with one or two passes. I remember it happened to the Bears against the Falcons a couple years ago. Bears seemingly win the game. Then, with about as much time as the Pats would have had yesterday, Matt Ryan completes one long pass down the sideline, FG kicker comes out, and it's over.