Ernesto Goes To Camp

Fuck.

 

No need to panic yet, but get your ass prepared.

 

J-D can tell me if I'm off-base here, but if Ernesto gets to CAT3 or better, it can miss NOLA by quite a bit and still do some serious damage, particularly if you believe, as I do from afar, that the feds are lying their asses off about the levess and canal walls.

 

Not good, my friends. Several models have it hitting near the New Orleans-Mobile-Pensacola corridor. I know models don't do well a week in advance, but it's still not good. Let's hope the GFS model is correct. It has it losing steam over the Gulf and going over the Florida peninsula as a weaker system than what it is currently called for. Hitting nowhere is preferable, but that's the only model that has the storm weakening any so I think we'll take that. Nothing against my Florida peninsula brethren. I enjoy visiting y'all, though I get the feeling y'all don't like me visiting.

 

Fenian, I think a lot of that depends on which side of the storm NOLA is on. If it ends on the east side of the wall, there could be problems. Big, big problems. If it ends up on the west side of the wall, it really depends on how far west it is. If you remember correctly, NOLA was on the west side of Katrina. However, because it was still relatively close, water got pushed up MRGO (Mississippi River - Gulf Outlet. It's a shipping channel) and into Lake Pontchartrain. If the storm hits around Mobile, NOLA might be all right. Anywhere in between Mobile and NOLA, and the levees could be in trouble if the Corps and Feds are lying.

 

Some neighbors of mine swear by this guy, who sends out e-mails to other meteorologists and anyone who gets on his mailing list:

Just a quick comment on the few more track models pouring in this Saturday morning, August 26.
Don't have much time, so this is going to have to be short.

The LONGER that this Ernesto is seemingly taking, the better it will be for SE Louisiana in avoiding Ernesto.

This is because the trough dipping down into the Central Miss. Valley and eventually Lower Miss. Valley HAS to pick this thing up and throw it north and eventually northeastward into the northEAST Gulf of Mexico waters. In general, the sharper the trough, the quicker it will occur. Some others will just call it a "weakness in the ridge". I understand that the Bams are still going out west into the Yucatan, but now that Ernesto is up to 15.0 degrees north at 8 AM this morning so soon in the Central Caribbean, & still going west-Northwest, I use this as a base reference in judging future path. Its having some better success at gaining a little bit more latitude. What you don't want to see happen is for it to get closer to the Yucatan, &, God forbid, still heading west-northwest at the Yucatan, and THEN make the hook north.

I think a HOOK north is inevitable once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, and such a hook to the north will happen.

My closing thought this morning is that NHC will eventually have to PULL the track EASTward, OR to the RIGHT as it looks as though Ernesto is taking too much time, which will focus attention toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico waters. I'll give this another closer, more detailed look late tonight, this Saturday night, August 26. Each time I view the 120 hr. forecast position, it gets later and later, slower and slower, so this is better news, in that Ernesto is likely to get picked up by the trough, being forced to head NORTHWARD in the Gulf of Mexico and pass EAST of Louisiana, BEFORE it has a chance to get to Louisiana's longitude.

Will have to go for now; will be back late tonight. Don't make any life or death decisions just yet.

T. Scott Barry
Meteorologist

 

I echo what our esteemed Mr. Cantore said, Fenian.

But I have to look up something about MRGO (affectionately known as Mr. Go) before I can render a more informed opinion than what I could offer now about an east-of-New Orleans hit.

 

The thing about MRGO is that it's yet to be dredged since Katrina. It's still going to funnel the storm surge up pretty darn well. The corps has yet to install the flood gate system that it wants to and besides that, it's mired in political red tape as they try to figure out which system is best to install. the one that's on the drawing board right now is all but assured of flooding St. Bernard Parish. And you can imagine how much that pisses off the folks of St. Bernard Parish.

 

http://www.nola.com/printer/printer.ssf?/base/news-6/1155450357223600.xml

This is what I"m talking about. Just written better and with better explanation

 

Didn't Congress vote not to dredge the MRGO?

 

I assumed this was a Jim Varney thread...wow. Hopefully the damage down South is minimal.

 

IIRC, Congress voted on not dredging immediately but would study the impact of redredging. I think the citizens of se louisiana don't it dredged and want it put back to how it was years ago before MRGO was around. But there are some shipping businnesses that would love for there to be a re-dredged MRGO because the ships that they use have too much draft. I know Mobile has gotten two pretty big companies from NOLA because it has a deeper draft ship channel.