Fantasy football 2015

Well that was interesting. Had a 10 percent chance of winning with my opponent having TY Hilton against the Steelers. Figured I was done, clinging to a 1 point lead with a half to play. Held on.

 

Hilton screwed me. I had a 20-point lead going into the night game and a win would have given me the regular-season title at 9-4. My opponent had Martavis Bryant, DeAngelo Williams and Donte Moncrief, I had Hilton. All I needed from Hilton was 6 points and I would have won. Instead, I lost by 5 and I'm going to drop to fifth overall. I have my playoff berth locked up, thankfully, but three 7-5 teams behind me are all going to win and two of them beat me head-to-head earlier this season.

Still, if Gronkowski comes back healthy next week, I've got a decent shot.

 

I was one of three 5-7 teams competing for the fifth and sixth spots in the playoffs in my 8 team league. Played one of the other 5-7's and - barring McFadden and Reed outscoring Dez and Dan Bailey by 28 - should lock up the 5 seed. Even if I do lose, I should get the 6.

In my 14 team league, I'm in 5th competing to get the final playoff spot (four teams make the Championship bracket). I'm 7-5 and won big, while one of the other 7-5's lost (Team C) and the other (Team B) beat the #3 (Team D), pushing it to to 8-5 and likely in to 5th place (I have the lead on points and head-to-head). We have one more week in the regular season and I'm playing the other 7-5 team that won this week (Team B); he'll probably be 3rd seed and I'll be 4th. Fortunately the #3 team this week (Team D) will be playing the #1 or #2 team, so I should be good even if I lose.

Not bad when I was crapping out all season.

 

I need one more win to go 5-for-5 in playoff spots. But I'm screwed in one league. My regular QB is Carr, but he faces the Broncos. My backup is Cutler, who has a decent matchup against the Redskins. But he was mediocre against the 49ers last game out, and while he's been much more efficient than usual, he hasn't put up big numbers. I decided to pick up Cousins because he was the only valid QB on the waiver wire. So now I've just given myself an even bigger headache trying to decide which iffy QB to start in a playoff opener. Adding to the problem is that as a Bears fan, I assume if I start Cutler, he'll suck and the Bears' defense will make Cousins look like Brady, but if I start Cousins, the Bears' defense will play great and Cutler will screw me by throwing 4 TDs.

 

I suck. Sat Tyrod Taylor. Sat Russ Wilson. All I had to do was start one of those instead of Tannehill. That's it. I'd be fine. Shit, all I had to do was start the KC backfield and I would have won. But, I'm going to lose by one point because I took a flyer on Alfred Morris. I had nothing to lose as I'm guaranteed the bye in the playoffs, but was hoping for No. 1 overall. Oh well.

 

Here's a tip. Cut Tannehill. Now. He's thrown for fewer than 220 yards in three of his past four games. The Dolphins are looking to win with the running game and defense.

 

Oh I plan on it. Wilson is on a tear, but so is Tyrod. Should be fine w either.

 

My big sweat this week is what to do with Gurley. He's struggled the last couple of games and I have L. Murray available (but he's on the road at Denver). Ivory is my other RB.

 

I have that same problem on one of my teams. Last week I benched Gurley and played Ivory and David Johnson, with DeSean Jackson as the flex. I am not confident in either Gurley or Ivory. My other backs are West and Ware of KC, and I really don't have a good feel for which of them is a better play (if either are).

I went looking for backs on waivers, but there really is nothing out there.

 

Both are facing tough sledding, so the matchup doesn't really help you make a choice, although you could consider that Detroit's defense has been tougher against the run over the past four weeks than Denver. However, Denver shut down Murray the first time around.

Part of the reason for Gurley's struggles the past two weeks is that the Rams have been behind by too much to use their running game. That could very well happen again. Murray may be the better play if only because of volume. The Lions seem more likely to blow out the Rams than the Broncos are to blow out the Raiders. I would lean toward using Murray.

My dilemma is who to use in place of Gronkowski, Richard Rodgers vs. Dallas or Ben Watson at TB.

My running back situation is also tough in that my less-talented backs have better match ups. Freeman is at Carolina and Rawls is at Baltimore, while Yeldon (who had a big week last week) has a sweet matchup vs. Indy and Gore has a decent matchup at Jacksonville. I can safely rule out using Gore, but Yeldon is tempting.

 

I'd use Yeldon before Freeman.

 

Why so definitively?

Yeldon has topped 12 points twice this season - 18 points vs. Buffalo, 19 points last week at Tennessee. Freeman has topped 12 points seven times, including four games of 25-plus.

Freeman's ceiling is much, much higher than Yeldon's and his floor is the same, barring injury.