Fantasy Football Argument — Am I Right or Overreacting?

Look, it’s fantasy football and I don’t care. But …

It’s people you’re forcing yourself to associate with even though you dislike and distrust some of those people. That’s a key argument in favor of leaving.

 

Or better yet, hold the draft online. Usually ESPN and Yahoo can do randomized draft orders.

 

Isn’t it exponential when consecutive?

1/729, which is to the 6th power? Hitting a 1/3 twice in a row is a 1/9.

 

I am Team Commish on this one. I don’t think it is that unrealistic to envision a scenario in which the commish and a few other owners got together over beers, decided to get the draw over with and either didn’t include or forgot to call the owner who admittedly isn’t close to most of the league’s owners and just joined the league because they needed a spot filled. Are there different ways to do the draw? Sure. But if 11 out of the 12 owners are apparently fine with this way, why should the league change?

A breakup is probably best here. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun (even if some money is involved). The OP shouldn’t participate if he thinks the commish and other owners are cheating and conspiring against him. And the league shouldn’t want the OP around if he’s going to be accusing multiple owners of cheating because of his draft position.

 

If it bothers you that you feel that it is possible, find a different league. It does not sound like you are invested in this one other than having been in the league for some time.

The leagues I play in are on Yahoo. An hour or so before the start of the draft the software designates the draft order randomly, and it is a snake draft so the 10th or 12th guy picks back to back.

If you need a new league, I bet you could go to Yahoo, request a random league and draft within an hour, repeatedly.

If it's a money league and no provision is made to assure clarity that the draft is random, that's an issue.

 

As I said, I'm rusty on my probability.

The chance of a bottom-four finish for any one year is .33, yes. But getting bottom-four in six years running is .33^6, not .33 x 6, if I remember correctly.

A 6 percent chance is about 42 times MORE LIKELY than what I've calculated (a 0.13 percent chance) and thus would raise about one-fortieth of the eyebrows that the true probability raises.

 

I messed my math up. It is .33x.33x.33x.33x.33x.33.

You don’t use exponents, though. One bag of four marbles has one red one and another bag has 10 marbles and one red one, the odds of choosing two red marbles is .25x.10.

 

You use exponents when the probability of each event is constant, as it is in this case.

The odds of a coin toss being heads ten times in a row is 1/2 (exponent ten).

 

Folks, I was told that there would be no math.

 

Pssst: .33 x .33 x .33 x .33 x .33 x .33 == .33 ^ 6

So yeah. It's exponents.