Fantasy football: How much is luck?

Ah, right. Misread.

 

That was like the year I won during Kurt Warner's rookie year with the Rams. I took him with my last pick of the draft, as a bye week replacement.
I forget who my other QB was, but Warner was starting for me by week 3 and carried me to the title.

 

When I started 1-3, I began thinking that the football game is mostly luck.

Now that I'm 1-5, I'm sure of it.

 

One thing I like is being in fantasy sports leagues where the rules are tweaked a little bit from the norm. That way, you can't just pick from a magazine or Internet list. Rewards preparation.

 

I got Cam Newton with the last pick of last year's draft. That worked out for me.

Draft position has killed me this year. I had the No. 1 pick in a 10-team league in one draft, the No. 10 in a 12-teamer and the No. 10 in a 10 teamer. My running backs are trash across the board. Took Rodgers No. 1 and went with a QB/TE combo in the leagues with the late picks because I would have had to terribly overreach to grab someone like Chris Johnson in those spots.

In the league with Rodgers (and Jordy Nelson), though, my team scored 131 this week despite my inspiring duo of Vick Ballard and LaRod Stephens-Howling at RB. I'm fairly dependent on Green Bay's offense, it seems.

I thought I'd be better off with an elite QB at 1 than one of the running backs, considering the passing nature of the league these days.

 

In the league I commish we do payouts for highest point weeks to go along with the normal head to head.

Right now one team scored 199 in week three and another scored 169 in week two. Right now they are in line for $150 and $75 each if thise scores hold up. It keeps everyone involved even if your w/l record stinks.

 

I've made the championship in both of my leagues each of the past two years. So I vote for no luck at all.

 

For me this year, it's not "How much is Luck?" It's "How much is RGIII?"

 

Right now, I'm sitting in sixth place at 2-4 despite having the most total points in my league. Three of the four losses come against teams that scored their highest point total of the year against me. I lead the league with 494.88 points scored, but my points against is 505.03, which also leads the league. It's luck, but I think things will average out and I can eek into the playoffs as long as my team keeps scoring a lot of points.

 

A lot of what people are describing is luck of the head to head format, which applies in other fantasy sports (and real life sports) as well. I agree with the premise of the thread that FB has far more luck than baseball & Basketball.

 

I like being in a keeper league. You tend to value your team more, I think, when you hold players from year to year.

The down side, however, is that it's difficult to move up in the pecking order. Running backs, especially; after you get past 2-3 feature backs let go by people who are dumping their entire roster, the pickings are slim. And the people who are dumping their entire roster are getting the first draft picks anyway, so they get first shot at those upper-crust backs.

 

I scored 181 this week. And lost by 4 points. Grrrr!