Fantasy football: How much is luck?

Resurrecting this thread to answer the question.

Last night, Marshawn Lynch wrapped up a league championship for one of my three fantasy teams. That marks the fourth year in a row that I have won a league championship. In 18 seasons played since 2007 (three teams per year), I have four titles and three other championship game appearances.

Luck? Coincidence? I think not.

 

I would argue that fantasy football is probably 80% luck. If your first-round pick is a bust, or blows out his knee week 1, you're probably toast. If you grab a 10th round flier who turns out to be Kurt Warner, you'll probably win.

Then there's the weekly luck factor. My team led my league in scoring this season by nearly 300 points. I'm in a league where scoring 100 points is the unofficial line between "You should win" and "You should lose," and I never scored below 105, averaged about 130. I owned the league, because I took a flyer on both RGIII and Peyton Manning with late picks, my first pick was Arian Foster, second was AJ Green, and I snagged Adrian Peterson in rd 3. That team went 12-2, and both losses were games where I was the 2nd highest scoring team playing the highest. But then this week, Peterson and Foster combined for 8 pts and my TE (Gonzalez) added 0 and I got smoked in the championship game. That's pure luck. No way I could have expected that, and nobody in my league would argue that the team that won the title was better than my team.

But it's a game of mostly luck, moreso than the others, like was said, because of the weekly "Set it and forget it" nature of the game that doesn't reward vigilence the way baseball and basketball do. It was luck that my Manning and RGIII picks panned out so well, luck that Peterson had a MVP-caliber season with a third-round pick, and (bad) luck that they all bombed so bad in week 16.

 

I had nowhere else to post this, but I have to vent it: Reggie Bush can go get fucked.

To answer the thread question: I'm going to say it's all skill. Because I have none, and I never seem to have any luck.

 

But that's not luck. If you had put a bunch of headshots on a dartboard and picked who you hit, that would be luck. You still had to make the picks.

 

My first-round pick was Gronkowski. Even after missing five games, he is eight points away from being the highest-scoring TE in our league. I lost the Super Bowl essentially because I couldn't find a TE worth a shit to replace him.

I doubt there's a fantasy baseball player who has that kind of impact.

 

Fuck fantasy football.

Three weeks ago, I was sitting in first place in three of my Yahoo leagues and second place in my two other Yahoo leagues. I then lost my first playoff game in a quarterfinal-playoff league so, heading into Week 15, I had a total of four teams left and looked like I'd roll to AT LEAST three league titles.

Fast forward to this week. I had three teams that made the league championship games. All three lost. How? My team scored it's season-worst, and this week's league's worst, while playing an opponent that scored it's season-best and this week's league's best.

Fantasy football can lick my taint.

 

I rode Cecil freaking Shorts to one of the SportsJournalists.com league's championship games this week. Then I went up against a guy who had Dez Bryant and Matt Ryan. My whole team didn't score as much as his starters.

 

A decade ago, I was in a league where it took 50 yards to equal a point, but TDs were worth the usual six. Raiders goalline back Zack Crockett was one of the key players in the league that year.

Since then, I don't join leagues that give no heft to yardage.

Anyway, in auction leagues I usually seek depth, and in all leagues I usually just try to stockpile running backs, even if to keep them away from other teams. But you cannot take luck out of the equation, considering the sport's injury rate. Always glad when the season is over.

 

I hit the jackpot on Shorts in my keeper league as well. Went 8-5, but made the final. Guy I played had Bryant and BREES. So I lost by 68 points. He also had Peterson and Arian Foster, who each did jack shit. And I had Ryan. Still lost by 68 points.

In my yearly draft league, I had the third-highest point total in the league, drafting Rodgers, Peterson, Spiller, S. Jackson, T. Gonzalez, Harvin and Dez, among others. Went 8-5 and didn't make the playoffs, because I played the top team in the league twice in a three-week span (he was in my division), and lost by a combined 5.5 points.

So my much-shittier team made the final, and probably the best team I have ever assembled didn't even make the playoffs.

So yes, I'd call it luck.

 

If you had Rodgers and AP and didn't make the playoffs, that's insane...

I just won my league thanks to Rodgers and Roddy White.

I think there is skill and knowledge in drafting and maintaining a good team, but matchups are obviously luck.

 

Yep. I scored in the top 1 or 2 in the entire league during the consolation games, so I probably would have at least made the final had I gotten in. Dez Bryant didn't help me much in those midseason matchups, but he was a beast the last part of the year when I was already knocked out. I was 7th, and 6 got in.

Baseball is much more skill than football. Too many variables in football, and the matchups and byes get me a lot. I still enjoy it, but I do much better in baseball generally.

 

So many minor things can factor into your fantasy success. A close game for example, could help your team's kicker grab 8-10 late points with a game-tying kick and a game winner. A missed tackle, a tipped pass, or any number of outcomes on a single play can swing a fantasy game 10-20 points.