Fantasy football: How much is luck?

Some luck, some good roster management. I had horseshit luck in my money league. Got the 11th pick in a 12-team snake draft (also picked 14th) and took Calvin Johnson 11th and Drew Brees 14th. Hated the running backs left in that range. Ended up with Daryl Richardson and David Wilson as my first two RBs, but plucked Ryan Mathews and Steven Jackson off the waiver wire later in the year when people gave up on them and they showed improvement. Also nabbed Andre Brown and Rashad Jennings.

The only players who I drafted that were on my semifinal starting lineup last week were Calvin and Drew. Welker was out, or I would have played him obviously. Mixed and matched defenses, kickers and flex guys all year. Got Jarrett Boykin and Julian Edelman during hot streaks, same with Jordan Reed. League is too competitive not to be a waiver wire hawk all year.

Of course, I ran into Charles last week. Would have beaten the other two semifinalists handily but I lost by 85 in a two-week playoff. His team was stacked. So that's bad luck.

 

Skill will keep you in the playoffs every year, but luck is needed to win in the playoffs.

 

In PPR leagues, RBs are of little use unless you get one of the 6-7 RBs who actually put up numbers. You're better off spending high picks on point-producing QBs and WRs. I used that strategy, but I took it to the extreme, ending up with Darren McFadden and Montee Ball as my two best RBs in one league. And Julio Jones gave me very little, the asshole. I still somehow started out 7-1, but ended up 9-4 and lost in the first round of the playoffs. FFF.

 

12-team money league playing for the championship this weekend

Ryan, Cutler

Charles (you had to know he was going to be the man in this system, I got him 9th overall)
Lacy

Green
Fitz
Wallace

Ram TE

14-team dynasty league (lost in the semis last week thanks to Gronk getting hurt and my benching Smith)

Kaep, Alex Smith

Bernard
Stacy
Vereen
Jones-Drew

Gordon (this is a guy where skill pays off. He was very good last season and under the radar for a lot of people)
Vincent Jackson
Riley Cooper
Blackmon

Graham
Gronk

LBers
Dansby (The Man)
Wagner
Alonzo
Daryl Washington

 

12-team money league playing for the championship this weekend

My team:

QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Adrian Peterson
RB: Reggie Bush
WR: Brian Hartline
WR: Greg Jennings
W/R: Jordan Todman
TE: Jason Witten
Kicker: Matt Prater
Defense: New Orleans
Defensive player: Von Miller

Advisory

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Shane Vereen
RB: Jamaal Charles
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Brandon Marshall
W/R: Andre Johnson
TE: Dennis Pitta
Kicker: Stephen Gostkowski
Defense: San Francisco
Defensive player: Daryl Smith

Hoping for a win.

 

It's skill if you win, and luck (bad, of course) when you lose.

 

Got my money back, lost first round of playoffs with an all-rookie backfield. 12-team keeper league has been in operation since 1987.

QB: Ryan, Dalton.
RB: LBell, Lacy, Woodhead, Jacobs, Powell
WR: Bowe, VJackson, Boldin, Tate, RWoods, RCooper
TE: Gates, JReed
PK: Hauschka, Henery

Toughest thing about keeper leagues is that you don't have many money-making RBs on the board. If you have one, you keep him from year to year. So I guess I had a pretty good year targeting two impact rookies there. You can see I had no depth, though. You never knew whether Danny Woodhead would get you 20 points or 3.

Who to keep for next year? Hard to say. If you keep five guys, you may as well keep none. If you keep seven guys, you may as well keep them all. Nothing worse than coming in with the 13th, 14th pick of the night.

P.S. I am so glad we do not do anything with D/ST. I hate playing in leagues that use them.

 

I didn't know a league existed that didn't use D/ST.

 

I'd be more in favor of getting rid of a kicker spot than a DEF/ST. So much of kickers are a total crapshoot.

 

I have found using waiver wire and picking up teams facing backup qbs is much better than sticking with one.

 

I do pretty much the same thing. I'll fill my entire bench at a draft before taking a kicker or defense. My old standby was to pick up whoever was playing the Cardinals that week. This season I've mostly picked up whoever's playing the Jets.

 

Yup. I've never not drafted a kicker and a defense with my final two picks in the draft. I then rotate them throughout the season, especially defenses, which I change almost every week. Early in the season I picked up whoever was playing the Jaguars, if they were available. Later in the season, I switched to the team playing the Jets.