Fantasy football: How much is luck?

That is insane as well. I enjoy the drafting rookies, and I got Zac Stacy this year and Alshon Jeffrey last year. Definitely different.

 

I got Bernard, Stacy and Kiko who are contributing this year. Others like Patton and a couple LBs are in wait and see mode.

 

Also got Geno Smith (!), Cordarrelle Patterson, Latavius Murray and Kenjon Barner, and last year I got Russell Wilson (who I traded for DeMarco Murray since I was in desperate need of a RB) and LaMichael James. Think those are the only two I have left from last year's draft besides Jeffrey.

 

Total luck. I just won my league on that Bowman return for a TD. If he doesn't score I lose

 

Back to crow again.

Two victories in three championship games.

One sealed by Frank Gore -- I trailed by one coming into Monday night but my opponent was done so Gore just needed more than 10 yards. He scored 16 points for an easy win.

One win was of the pulled-out-of-my-ass variety -- I entered Monday down by seven with only Niners kicker Phil Dawson left, while my opponent had Vernon Davis. Dawson scored 10 (his fourth straight double-digit game and sixth in his last seven) while Davis was stunningly shut out to hand me the victory.

I actually came pretty close to the trifecta. In the loss, I trailed by 21 with Gore playing tonight and came up just a touchdown short.

Can't win 'em all, I guess. But as that noted philosopher Meat Loaf once said, two out of three ain't bad.

 

I averaged 133 points per week during the season (and went 11-3). I scored 104 points, my second lowest total of the season, and still won the championship because the other guy had his worst week of the season with 83.

 

My bad beat story: One year, I was sitting pretty at 6-3. Then I proceeded to lose three straight, including a couple when I was the second highest-scoring team in the league for that week, only I was playing the highest scoring team and ended up losing.

So now I'm 6-6, and I'm clinging to the final playoff spot entering the final week of the regular fantasy season. The team behind me is 5-7, and we're playing two separate teams. The tiebreaker is total points scored for the season and I have roughly a 30-point advantage. I win my week, and I'm in the playoffs. I lose, and if the 5-7 team loses its game, I'm still in. The only way in which I get KOed is if I lose, the other team wins, and scores 30+ points more than my team.

After the Sunday games entering the Eagles-Seahawks Monday nighter, my team does shitty, but is still only down by 7 points to my weekly opponent. He's done, and I had Seattle's kicker. The 5-7 team goes off for a ton of points, but his opponent also goes nuts. 5-7 team is losing his game by about 35 points, and only has the Seahawks defense remaining.

So, what happens? The Eagles throw Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer in at quarterback, they throw two pick-6s, another couple of interceptions, a few fumbles and the Seahawks shut out the Eagles 42-0. Shutouts are worth even more points. My kicker only scores 6, and I lose my game by a point. The 5-7 team storms from behind on Seattle's defense and not only wins his game, but surpasses the 30+ points differential between us. I end up missing the playoffs.

 

My bad beat story is actually a string of them. A few years ago, I finished 4-9 in a league, with four of the nine losses coming by a total of 23 points.

Even that wasn't as bad as two years later, though. I lost three games by a total of four points. The losses were made even worse by the fact that all of them were decided by meaningless plays in the fourth quarter of the Monday night game.
One week, Brandon Marshall caught about a 12-yard pass with less than a minute left in a game the Dolphins were getting killed in. One point for the reception, another for the yardage, and I lose by two.
In Week 9, my opponent has Michael Vick, who has a craptacular game to give me a chance at surviving. On the next to last play of the game, Vick scrambles against the prevent defense for about 15 yards, giving him enough rushing yardage to gain two extra points. I lose by one.
Finally, in Week 13, I needed 45 points from Maurice Jones-Drew and Nick Novak on Monday night -- and got 44. The game was a blowout, and the Jags sat MoJo down in the fourth quarter with him needing either two measly yards or one reception to put me over the top.

If I'd won the Week 13 game, I would have still made the playoffs without incident. Instead, half the league finished 6-7 and we went through a convoluted string of tiebreakers. I made the playoffs and lost in the third place game. Breaking the tiebreakers, however, (I was the commissioner) caused one of the other owners to call my integrity into question, and more or less was the final step in his getting booted from the league.

 

My fantasy league was pure luck.

I squeaked in to the No. 4 seed, making the championship semifinals. Then I knocked off the #1 team to reach the title game, and finaly defeated the #3 seed for the title.

I checked my lineup every day leading in to Sunday's games, and every day, I almost released Andy Daulton and picked up Jay Cutler. Talked myself out of it every time.

That's how lucky I was.

One week, I bench a struggling Eric Decker and he scored four touchdowns. So I start him the next week and he catches one pass.

But I had Jamaal Charles and Dez Bryant, Denver's defense and started Decker for the title game, and won by 56 points.

As my team motto says, I'd rather be lucky than good.

 

That's not luck, Harley. That's being successful with the decision you eventually made.

 

I think there is a fair amount of luck, particularly with injuries.

But there is a tremendous amount of strategy - specifically draft strategy and waiver wire pickups.

I botched all my leagues this year by thinking this would be the year of the running QB.

I generally play in six or seven leagues. Next year I am diversifying my strategies.

I can also say RB RB RB isn't a great strategy anymore.

 

I drafted late at QB, a mistake I won't make again.

Kaepernick was all that was left, and he killed me. But I love waiver-wire pickups.