FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

This is ground previously-covered. Ras' 2008 result was demonstrated to be a "busted clock is right twice a day" phenomenon. You can still get almost 2-1 on Romney in the marketplace. You'd better hurry, if you love Rasmussen so much.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Willard's flat-lying, obfuscation and sheer ducking is reaching new lows.

I'd MUCH rather be in the POTUS' position, than Willard's.

Only one more week to wait.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/06/cell-phone-addi.php

Percentage of cellphone-only households, 2008: 18 percent
Percentage of cellphone-only households, 2011: 34 percent

That number is only going up, and I would say there are homes with landlines that are practically cellphone only. We have a landline basically because Comcast throws it in for nothing with our cable and Internet service. We have a few older relatives who call it, but otherwise we don't answer it because the number that pops up is never anyone we know.

That's not to say polling this cycle is inaccurate, but the reason for a lot of heart palpitations among the pollster set is because it's getting harder and harder to get representative samples. You don't robo-dial cell phones, and with caller ID, you can't surprise anyone into picking up and answering questions.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Also from that article:

Nearly 60 percent of Americans aged 25-29 don't own landline phones. More than half of those living in poverty also don't have landline phones. Failing to call cell phones risks underrepresenting men, Hispanics and African-Americans. Residents of the Northeast are likely to be overrepresented in landline-only surveys.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Not to dismiss your larger point, but who do you think votes?

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

A lot of young brown people who are pissing the GOP off by wanting to vote.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Ezra Klein ‏@ezraklein
A subtext of journalistic resentment of Silver is that if punditry is based in numbers, journalists who don't know numbers are less valuable

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Sound familiar?

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

This is pretty funny -- Politico's swing-state map has it 281-257 for Obama. Romney wins Fla., N.C., Va. and Colo. and Obama takes the rest including Ohio. HOWEVER, in their RCP poll averages, both Virginia and Colorado are dead heats down to the tenth of a point. Interesting that both of those states, and their combined 22 EVs, would be assigned to the Romney column. All other states have a minimum of 1.3 points difference in the averages.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/?hp=t3_3

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Alma vs. o_t = Mike Tyson vs. Glass Joe

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

"If you love them so much"? Well, my dad can beat up your dad.

The problem with pointing out methodology issues is that it's almost always done after a person decides whether or not they like the results they are hearing.

Rasmussen is one data point, as valid to this point as all the others.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

I'll lay you 50 bucks that someone crafts a picture showing Romney lifting boxes already loaded on palates in that Ohio rescue operation he's working at. Photo op! Photo op! lol...