FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Moderator1 · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Romney can still win VA, Ohio and Florida. And maybe PA? I just don't see it as over.

zagoshe · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

The problem Romney has is a few of the "toss up" states are not even close:

For instance, RCP has Pennsylvania as a toss up and I can assure Romney has no prayer of winning here. None. Zero.

And I have a hard time believing Romney has a prayer in Michigan and Wisconsin, either, and I am beginning to think Ohio is out of play as well.

You take those two off the board and Obama is at 265 which would mean Romney would have to win every single other toss up state to win the election and that just ain't happening.

LanceyHoward · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Bob Cook said:

Double Down said:

Is Gary Johnson going to be Romney's Nader? I see he's getting 4 percent of the vote in Colorado. (Supposedly it's a 1 point lead for the President there.) I know Colorado frequently has a case of the libertarian fever, but what is he getting in places like Florida and Virginia and New Hampshire? Is he a draw in any of the other battleground states?
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I'm not sure about that, but I do know that in some states the Libertarian is having a measurable effect. Before Richard Mourdock sailed down the River Rape, he was running only even with Democrat Joe Donnelly, and part of that was because a Libertarian candidate, Andrew Hornung (who has run frequently in Indiana), was grabbing 5-7 percent in polls.

It's a very, very, very, very outside chance that Mike Pence loses the state's gubernatorial race, but between Mourdock's comments and some good press for Libertarian candidate Rupert Boneham, he might be sweating a little bit. By the way, that's Rupert as in Rupert from Survivor. I haven't heard whether he would plan, as governor, to make all residents outwit, outplay and outsmart each other, and whether he would grant immunities from time to time.
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Third party candidates frequently lsoe support as election day neard ebcasue people decide to vote for the lesser of the two major party two evils.

I think Mourdock may be an exception. A liberterian is someone who beleives in limited governmental rights and may be so repelled by Mourdock's views on rape- and hence the role of powerful role of government Mourdoch would endorse in this case- that a liberterian they generally will find both candidates equally repellant. So I think you may see the libetarian voter run higher in Indiana.

LongTimeListener · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Moderator1 said:

Romney can still win VA, Ohio and Florida. And maybe PA? I just don't see it as over.
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Pennsylvania hasn't even been a swing state for the past month at least. Romney camp has been trying to make some noise about it being closer than expected, but no poll gives them a realistic chance.

Ohio is going to be very difficult, but possible if the GOP gets the right turnout.

VA and FL are already considered to be in Romney's camp but not nearly enough to do the trick. Even with those two and OH it's going to be tough.

GoochMan · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Ohio plus Iowa equals re-election. Obama is finishing his campaign in Des Moines for a purpose. (Symbolic to him too I'm sure, since it was the Iowa caucus in '08 that jump started his presidential campaign.)
Nevada will provide the extra layer of EV protection.
That cake is baked. Any other states are icing...

zagoshe · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Lugnuts said:

It's over, Moddy.

A Colin Powell endorsement, now Bloomberg, you got Chris Christie doing photo ops with him. They know.

Everything I've seen, the popular vote will be close. The EC? Not that close.
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Colin Powell endorsed Obama in 2008 and we've already been over Bloomberg's "endorsement" and Christie needs aid for his state.

I agree it is over, but those three events are not significant indicators of anything.

Moderator1 · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

So is Ryan just not that popular with his home staters?

On Silver's map, Florida is the only Red state that isn't solid. Lots of less-than-dark blue. I just don't know what to think.

Zag posed an interesting question earlier about why is it close if he's kept all his promises? Not at all sure - I think he's done a better job than some want to give him credit for but not quite the job a lot were expecting. If that makes sense. There was more to do than he realized, maybe, and he's also maybe not quite as good as people hoped. I know I've gone back and forth and I know damn well I'm not alone.

LongTimeListener · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

zagoshe said:

Lugnuts said:

It's over, Moddy.

A Colin Powell endorsement, now Bloomberg, you got Chris Christie doing photo ops with him. They know.

Everything I've seen, the popular vote will be close. The EC? Not that close.
Click to expand...

Colin Powell endorsed Obama in 2008 and we've already been over Bloomberg's "endorsement" and Christie needs aid for his state.

I agree it is over, but those three events are not significant indicators of anything.
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Oh, they're indicators. They're just reverse indicators, like "Team A wins every time Running Back X rushes for 100 yards."

He isn't going to win because of all those endorsements. He is getting all those endorsements because he's going to win.

Inky_Wretch · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Double Down said:

There are scientists who spend their entire lives traveling to freezing-ass places like the far reaches of the North Pole, and ridiculously long hours drilling down thousands of meters into the ice to take samples so that they find out what the earth's atmosphere was like 420,000 years ago. They spent weeks, months, even years living in huts, or on boats, eating MREs or tunafish out of a can, studying ocean microbes and writing tedious and boring research papers that are backed by actual evidence that was meticulously contrasted with control groups. They get up a 4 a.m. when it's 50 degrees below zero to check their equipment and prevent frostbite. They can prove, through carbon dating, that permafrost that has existed for 120,000 years is melting at a rate that will see it disappear within the next century. That in the last 10 years, Glaciers in Iceland that have existed for at least 1,000 years have disappeared. These scientists are anonymous, often poorly-paid, but are obsessive about their jobs. They are, without argument, some of the smartest people on the planet. They say global warming is real, that it's man made, and that atmospheric temperatures are higher now than at any point in the last 420,000 years.

On the other side, we have a guy who walks out into his front yard, licks his finger and sticks it in the air, and says "It's 70 degrees in November. This global warming stuff is bullshit. Dumb liberal scientists are biased."

And we are supposed to present this as two equally valid "opinions."
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Hey, hey, hey report the controversy.

LongTimeListener · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Moderator1 said:

So is Ryan just not that popular with his home staters?
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It's a lot of hard-hit labor, especially in his hometown. PBS aired a documentary called "As Goes Janesville" that showed what has happened there since GM shut down in 2008 (not under Obama as Ryan tried to imply in his convention speech). The Scott Walker controversy has made that state the most polarized in the nation. But I think Ryan has helped narrow the gap and bring it back into play, otherwise it would be an Obama rout.

Norrin Radd · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Lugnuts said:

It's over, Moddy.

A Colin Powell endorsement, now Bloomberg, you got Chris Christie doing photo ops with him. They know.

Everything I've seen, the popular vote will be close. The EC? Not that close.
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It's been over for a while.

The debates and subsequent polls just gave the media something to talk about.

But you're right: when GOP politicians start acknowledging it, then their guy really is done.

LongTimeListener · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Moderator1 said:

Zag posed an interesting question earlier about why is it close if he's kept all his promises? Not at all sure - I think he's done a better job than some want to give him credit for but not quite the job a lot were expecting. If that makes sense. There was more to do than he realized, maybe, and he's also maybe not quite as good as people hoped. I know I've gone back and forth and I know damn well I'm not alone.
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The Party Of No's strategy of obstructing at every turn is working to perfection. They throw sand in the engine at every opportunity and then bitch that Obama can't start the car. This is not a new strategy -- Bill Kristol introduced it in 1993 when he wrote that the GOP should reject Clinton's health plan "sight unseen" -- and it is a very effective one.

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FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

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FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

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