FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

RickStain · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

-Ohio, +Wisconsin/Colorado or +Wisconson/Nevada

Mark2010 · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

zagoshe said:

I've actually gone over this for the last few days and really studied it and frankly, I cannot come up with a realistic model that gets Romney to 270, especially if he, as I predict he will, loses Ohio, but here is the road he must travel and he is still in play in these states so if he wins them all I suppose he could get there.....

The best case scenario I can come up with is this ---

Romney wins Ohio, Va., NC, Florida and Iowa to get 81 EVs.

Add that to the 191 he already has and he gets to 272.

If he loses Ohio, though, I can't come up with 16 other EVs to replace Ohio's 18 to get him to 270.

So the election basically does come down to Ohio, though, unlike Romney, Obama could lose it and still win the election.
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Yeah, agreed. Romney needs to run the table to even have a chance, unless more chunks of New Jersey fall into the ocean.

zagoshe · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

RickStain said:

-Ohio, +Wisconsin/Colorado or +Wisconson/Nevada
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That's just it - I haven't seen one poll in recent weeks that makes me believe Wisconsin is up for grabs.

GoochMan · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Agreed on Wisconsin. Never thought Ryan's presence would be quite enough there--he wasn't a statewide office holder, so I had doubts about his coat tails there. Plus wasn't one big factor in Scott Walker's recall victory the fact that a percentage of voters that dislike him also disliked the notion of a recall even more?

LongTimeListener · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Congressional Research Service (nonpartisan group) was ready to publish a report in April saying there is no correlation between a reduction in top tax rates and economic growth. GOP senators stopped publication.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/business/questions-raised-on-withdrawal-of-congressional-research-services-report-on-tax-rates.html?ref=business&_r=2&

Double Down · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

GoochMan said:

Agreed on Wisconsin. Never thought Ryan's presence would be quite enough there--he wasn't a statewide office holder, so I had doubts about his coat tails there. Plus wasn't one big factor in Scott Walker's recall victory the fact that a percentage ofcvoterscthat dislike him also disliked the notion of a recall even more?
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That may be true. I know, even at the height of the recall stuff, Obama was still +6 or +7 with voters.

Norrin Radd · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

LongTimeListener said:

Moderator1 said:

Zag posed an interesting question earlier about why is it close if he's kept all his promises? Not at all sure - I think he's done a better job than some want to give him credit for but not quite the job a lot were expecting. If that makes sense. There was more to do than he realized, maybe, and he's also maybe not quite as good as people hoped. I know I've gone back and forth and I know damn well I'm not alone.
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The Party Of No's strategy of obstructing at every turn is working to perfection. They throw sand in the engine at every opportunity and then bitch that Obama can't start the car. This is not a new strategy -- Bill Kristol introduced it in 1993 when he wrote that the GOP should reject Clinton's health plan "sight unseen" -- and it is a very effective one.
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Remember how thrilled the Democrats were to work with Bush?

Man, what halcyon days those were for our republic.

Bob Cook · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Michael_ Gee said:

Moddy, I think all Obama's political problems stem from something you just said. Things were way worse than he thought. Everything. The economy, the banking crisis, the nature of his opposition, the nature of his own party in the Senate, etc. So he wasn't aggressive enough at the start when he had momentum. And the unrealistic expectations of many of his supporters didn't help.
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Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I still have a feeling a reason we haven't seen bankers frog-marched into court is because the banking system was -- still is -- way worse than we ever realized. So bad, we would all shit our collective pants over it. I mean, look at far these guys were leveraged.

Let's put it this way: there were hardcore free-market Republicans who got one look at the books at 2008 and cast votes for TARP as fast as anyone.

Captain Obvious · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Norrin Radd said:

LongTimeListener said:

Moderator1 said:

Zag posed an interesting question earlier about why is it close if he's kept all his promises? Not at all sure - I think he's done a better job than some want to give him credit for but not quite the job a lot were expecting. If that makes sense. There was more to do than he realized, maybe, and he's also maybe not quite as good as people hoped. I know I've gone back and forth and I know damn well I'm not alone.
Click to expand...

The Party Of No's strategy of obstructing at every turn is working to perfection. They throw sand in the engine at every opportunity and then bitch that Obama can't start the car. This is not a new strategy -- Bill Kristol introduced it in 1993 when he wrote that the GOP should reject Clinton's health plan "sight unseen" -- and it is a very effective one.
Click to expand...

Remember how thrilled the Democrats were to work with Bush?

Man, what halcyon days those were for our republic.
Click to expand...

No Child Left Behind wasn't something force-fed on Democrats in Congress.

Bob Cook · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

GoochMan said:

Agreed on Wisconsin. Never thought Ryan's presence would be quite enough there--he wasn't a statewide office holder, so I had doubts about his coat tails there. Plus wasn't one big factor in Scott Walker's recall victory the fact that a percentage of voters that dislike him also disliked the notion of a recall even more?
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Yeah, one exit poll showed 60 percent of Wisconsin voters saying recalls should only be more official misconduct -- not merely being a hateful douchebag. (I don't think that was the official wording of the question.) I don't know how that matched up in voting for or against Walker, but I presume there may have been some who voted for Walker mainly because they didn't want to have to deal with this shit again every time there was a new governor.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57447919-503544/early-wisconsin-recall-exit-polls-60-percent-say-recalls-are-only-for-official-misconduct/

hondo · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

MileHigh said:

It's been over for a year. Obama will win with at least 290 EVs, probably closer to 310.

Though I'm rooting for 269-269 only for the chaos and media meltdown that will follow.
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If it's over, why play the game?

Tarheel316 · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

LongTimeListener said:

That is because these people want to take away old people's Social Security.
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Which they do. They want to cut taxes for the wealthy, gut the social safety net and don't care about the deficit despite their bullshit rhetoric. Romney and Ryan ...... champ fucktards.

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FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

RickStain Well-Known Member

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FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

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