FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

hondo · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Double Down said:

I feel like Old Tony teamed up with hondo to write the copy for that spot.
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Not guilty. I've been playing golf the last two days.

Captain Obvious · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Bob Cook said:

GoochMan said:

Agreed on Wisconsin. Never thought Ryan's presence would be quite enough there--he wasn't a statewide office holder, so I had doubts about his coat tails there. Plus wasn't one big factor in Scott Walker's recall victory the fact that a percentage of voters that dislike him also disliked the notion of a recall even more?
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Yeah, one exit poll showed 60 percent of Wisconsin voters saying recalls should only be more official misconduct -- not merely being a hateful douchebag. (I don't think that was the official wording of the question.) I don't know how that matched up in voting for or against Walker, but I presume there may have been some who voted for Walker mainly because they didn't want to have to deal with this shit again every time there was a new governor.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57447919-503544/early-wisconsin-recall-exit-polls-60-percent-say-recalls-are-only-for-official-misconduct/
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It didn't help when the same guy who lost to Walker in 2010 was his opponent in the recall. Maybe voters had buyer's remorse, but they didn't like the alternative.

sportbook · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

zagoshe said:

I've actually gone over this for the last few days and really studied it and frankly, I cannot come up with a realistic model that gets Romney to 270, especially if he, as I predict he will, loses Iowa, but here is the road he must travel and he is still in play in these states so if he wins them all I suppose he could get there.....

The best case scenario I can come up with is this ---

Romney wins Ohio, Va., NC, Florida and Iowa to get 81 EVs.

Add that to the 191 he already has and he gets to 272.

If he loses Ohio, though, I can't come up with 16 other EVs to replace Ohio's 18 to get him to 270.

So the election basically does come down to Ohio, though, unlike Romney, Obama could lose it and still win the election.
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Romney could win Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Wisconsin/Iowa combo or Wisconsin/NH combo and win without taking Ohio. However, from this date four years ago Republicans have a 250,000 early advantage over four years ago. I think Iowa is the toughest of those states for Romney to win.

Obama's early voting margins comparable to 2008 are simply not very good. I just don't see the polls with big Democratic turnout advantages as being accurate. I also don't see a +1 Rep turnout that Gallup and Rasmussen have predicted. If that happens it's Romney with more than 300 in the EC. My guess is +2 or +3 Dem advantage that would lead to a nail biter for both camps. Internally, the Obama camp really has to be concerned with the early voting firewall they expected. It's below what they had hoped.

dooley_womack1 · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

zagoshe said:

Captain Obvious said:

zagoshe said:

NoOneLikesUs said:

It's not that he endorsed Obama, it's that he endorsed Obama because of climate change.

Even though Obama has been silent on climate change for just about his entire administration (and disappointingly so from a liberal perspective), we know where the GOP stands on the issue. Denial will no longer stand.
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That's because "Climate Change" is not a real issue. It is a fabricated issue and it is a straw man that doesn't exist.

Well, unless you buy this nonsense that somehow using aerosol spray cans is the reason our summers last longer these days.....
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And there Zagoshe proves he is the real "FUCKTARD" here.
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Yes, yes, because man is responsible for changing the climate and global warming.

That's kookacracy and it is a bunch of silliness peddled by liberal pinheads who hate capitalism and who hate progress, fucktard.

But hey you keep believing that we are responsible for changing the climate because we drive too many cars if it makes you sleep at night, fucktard.

This is one of the most ridiculous non-issues ever peddled by the lunatic fringe.
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Climate change is a scientific fact. Challenges to it should be done by scientific method, not plebiscite.

RickStain · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Hypothetical question:

It's Wednesday, and your chosen candidate has lost decisively, 55-45 with an Electoral College blowout.

You are given a one-time chance to flip the result, knowing that this is thwarting the will of a democratic nation. Do you do it?

Norrin Radd · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

RickStain said:

Hypothetical question:

It's Wednesday, and your chosen candidate has lost decisively, 55-45 with an Electoral College blowout.

You are given a one-time chance to flip the result, knowing that this is thwarting the will of a democratic nation. Do you do it?
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Hypothetical, and kinda useless, frankly.

Hypothetical question:

If a candidate said everyone gets a unicorn if he he wins, do you vote for him?

RickStain · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Yes.

Starman · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Norrin Radd said:

RickStain said:

Hypothetical question:

It's Wednesday, and your chosen candidate has lost decisively, 55-45 with an Electoral College blowout.

You are given a one-time chance to flip the result, knowing that this is thwarting the will of a democratic nation. Do you do it?
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Hypothetical, and kinda useless, frankly.

Hypothetical question:

If a candidate said everyone gets a unicorn if he he wins, do you vote for him?
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What the hell do you do with a unicorn?

I'll hang up and listen.

Gehrig · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Does this thread reach 10,000 replies before Novermber 7th?

Oggiedoggie · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

If it does, will we get a unicorn?

LongTimeListener · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

"Unicorn" on the Internet means an attractive, mostly heterosexual woman who is enthusiastic about joining couples for a no-strings-attached FFM threesome.

I am voting for anyone who promises a unicorn.

Flying Headbutt · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

I'd prefer a pegasus.

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