FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

YGBFKM · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Norrin Radd said:

This is getting posted on Facebook by some people, but not verified by any reputable media source. Just like the whole "A couple having sex was shown on the SkyDome JUMBOTRON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" stuff that is only found on blogs and wikipedia.

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/11/01/valerie-jarret-after-we-win-this-election-its-our-turn-payback-time-wsi/

Attributed to Valerie Jarrett, who I guess is an Obama adviser?

“After we win this election, it’s our turn. Payback time. Everyone not with us is against us and they better be ready because we don’t forget. The ones who helped us will be rewarded, the ones who opposed us will get what they deserve. There is going to be hell to pay. Congress won’t be a problem for us this time. No election to worry about after this is over and we have two judges ready to go.”
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Remember, TINMHITTMAL. The base will love this.

YGBFKM · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

JayFarrar said:

YGBFKM said:

No matter who wins Tuesday, the country won't be better off for a while.
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False.
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Enjoy the puppy dogs and rainbows you wake up to Wednesday if your guy wins.

old_tony · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

NYTimes public editor slaps down Nate Silver's childish behavior.

http://twitchy.com/2012/11/01/nate-silver-offers-to-bet-joe-scarborough-1000-that-obama-wins-gets-slammed-by-ny-times-public-editor/?utm_source=autotweet&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter

http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/under-attack-nate-silver-picks-the-wrong-defense/?smid=tw-share

old_tony · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Inky_Wretch said:

old_tony said:

zagoshe said:

RickStain said:

-Ohio, +Wisconsin/Colorado or +Wisconson/Nevada
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That's just it - I haven't seen one poll in recent weeks that makes me believe Wisconsin is up for grabs.
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Pollsters are still running off the 2008 model and continuing to ignore 2010. Here's a couple of polls for you: Scott Walker and Ron Johnson elected in 2010; Scott Walker re-elected in the recall election in June of 2012 by a larger margin than he won in 2010.
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Or we can weigh the states by their turnout in 2010, a very good Republican year. But that doesn’t help, either: instead, Mr. Obama leads by 2.1 percentage points based on this method.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/oct-30-what-state-polls-suggest-about-the-national-popular-vote/
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So Nate thinks Nov. 2010 was a good time for Democrats? Poor kid is losing it.

Double Down · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

It's like you don't even have a basic grasp of English some posts.

Michael_ Gee · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

So John Harwood of the Times tweets that the dance music of the election should be "Skin Tight" by the Ohio Players.

Norrin Radd · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

old_tony said:

NYTimes public editor slaps down Nate Silver's childish behavior.

http://twitchy.com/2012/11/01/nate-silver-offers-to-bet-joe-scarborough-1000-that-obama-wins-gets-slammed-by-ny-times-public-editor/?utm_source=autotweet&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter

http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/under-attack-nate-silver-picks-the-wrong-defense/?smid=tw-share
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I find that quite amusing. Thanks for posting.

That said, I also like that Silver finally got fed up with all the barbs being directed his way, and tried to fight back. It would have been better for him if he had no personal political ideology. But he does, and that invites certain criticism, even if ultimately unwarranted.

He and his blog are certainly getting some nice pub for this, though. Average person won't care that the "Public Editor" admonished him; they will visit his blog and find it fascinating.

MileHigh · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

To be fair, the NYT owns the blog.

BitterYoungMatador2 · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Alma said:

Talked today with a Republican friend. Romney guy. Serious issues with Obama on a variety of fronts.

Says to me: "If we don't win this election, we need to figure out what we're doing wrong. It shouldn't be this close."
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The fact that it's a "we" with so many in this country is alarming. People root for this shit like its sports.

RickStain · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

BitterYoungMatador2 said:

Alma said:

Talked today with a Republican friend. Romney guy. Serious issues with Obama on a variety of fronts.

Says to me: "If we don't win this election, we need to figure out what we're doing wrong. It shouldn't be this close."
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The fact that it's a "we" with so many in this country is alarming. People root for this shit like its sports.
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It's as fundamental to human nature as breathing and masturbation.

Double Down · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Josh Marshall pointed this out, so I'm not going to pretend it's an original thought, but this line in the column is clueless:

When he came to work at The Times, Mr. Silver gained a lot more visibility and the credibility associated with a prominent institution. But he lost something, too: the right to act like a free agent with responsibilities to nobody’s standards but his own.

I'll just quote Marshall's post, because it perfectly sums up how stuffy the Times still views itself. He's giving the Times credibility, not the other way around. Yet she's looking down on him like he's some silly blogger still.

I say this as an admirer of Silver and the Times. But I think this is almost a demonstrably false assumption and a sign Sullivan doesn’t fully grasp the politics and new media environment Silver operates in.

I’ve been attacking those who’ve been attacking Silver lately and I know that probably makes me seem like I’m some Silver diehard or something. But the reason he’s getting attacked so ferociously on the right now is precisely because he’s viewed as being the standard for poll prognostication. And his ‘odds’, which make Obama an almost overwhelming favorite, are seen by Republicans as really really damaging.

Here’s what Sullivan doesn’t get. There are 7 or 8 different organizations running different flavors of systematic presidential poll analysis right now. They range from Silver to sites like TPM and RCP and Pollster to academic political scientists. And they all show pretty much the same numbers that Silver’s showing. But Silver’s the one who has the public rep as the brainiac polling-meister so he’s the one everybody’s focused on — both Dems who want to believe his numbers (and who tend to favor more science/evidence based analysis) and Republicans who desperately want him to be wrong. That is almost the definition of public credibility, which is what the Times purchased when they made their deal with him.

Again, everybody is showing basically the same thing. But he’s the lightning rod, pro and con.

Like a number of media personalities/experts (and I mean that in a positive sense), Silver is not really reliant on the Times at all. He’s his own brand. In the political realm he built it in the 2008 cycle (he obviously had a baseball sabermetrics rep before that).

I don’t think there’s any question the Times gained considerably more than he did in the bargain. That’s why I suspect they’re paying him quite a lot of money and he was able to negotiate a deal in which the entire 538 franchise is still his. He’s just leasing it to them.
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LongTimeListener · Nov 1, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Silver may end up following the lead of Freakonomics and going back out on his own. Times sure isn't doing itself any favors in keeping him.

The idea that conservatives give 10 cents what the NYT public editor thinks now is hilarious. Not as hilarious as old_tony mocking Silver's reading of data, but hilarious anyway.

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