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FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Moderator1, Sep 21, 2012.

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Page 47 of 1781
  1. Bubbler

    Bubbler Well-Known Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    Not buying it until The Examiner reports it.
     
    Bubbler, Sep 28, 2012
    #553
  2. Elliotte Friedman

    Elliotte Friedman Moderator Staff Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    Trying to think: in my lifetime (born 1970), how many great presidential elections have their been? I'm talking competitive, hard-fought battles where you didn't know by September that a) the race was over and b) the loser was a total dufus.

    Romney is en route to joining a list of duds like McCain (who I admire as a person, but ran an awful campaign), Dole, Mondale and Dukakis. Clinton/Bush was a good one...so was Bush/Gore, but, to me, that's pretty much it.
     
    Elliotte Friedman, Sep 28, 2012
    #554
  3. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    Well, at this point in 1980, the mainstream media was declaring Carter the winner based on his 49-38 lead in the polls. I understand you were only 10 at the time, but you should remember who won that one.
     
    old_tony, Sep 28, 2012
    #555
  4. TowelWaver

    TowelWaver Well-Known Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    I can't post the picture, but here's how the polls for 1980 *really* tracked, not surprisingly nothing like the above narrative.

    http://www.tnr.com/sites/default/files/1980.GIF
     
    TowelWaver, Sep 28, 2012
    #556
  5. dixiehack

    dixiehack Well-Known Member

    dixiehack, Sep 28, 2012
    #557
  6. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    I never understand somebody stating a stat as fact that is so easily found to be a bald-faced lie.
     
    Inky_Wretch, Sep 28, 2012
    #558
  7. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    Plus, polls were completely unsophisticated then compared to today. Even as recently as 12 years ago, the Gore-Bush election, from what I understand polling was not nearly as reliable as it is now.

    I'm not saying Romney can't win, because Obama still has to deal with some economic news between here and the election that may help or hurt him, but if he does win, it won't prove that the late September polling was inaccurate. (Not that Tony is saying that, necessarily. I can't tell if he thinks Reagan waged a comeback or that the polls were inaccurate - probably some combination thereof.)
     
    Dick Whitman, Sep 28, 2012
    #559
  8. Elliotte Friedman

    Elliotte Friedman Moderator Staff Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    Looked at the linked chart and didn't even remember Carter being that close...was young, but recall the prevailing feeling being Reagan was going to kill him.
     
    Elliotte Friedman, Sep 28, 2012
    #560
  9. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    Inky_Wretch, Sep 28, 2012
    #561
  10. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    Gallup poll (and Gallup was the pollster back in 1980) showed Carter up 6 Oct. 24-27 of 1980.

    And this chart shows a point in mid-Oct. where Gallup had Carter up 47-39

    http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=115543.0
     
    old_tony, Sep 28, 2012
    #562
  11. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    This (an analysis done of polling by a CBS reporter) shows Gallup had Carter +3 on 10/26 and -1 on 10/30 ...

    http://www.amstat.org/sections/SRMS/proceedings/papers/1981_011.pdf
     
    Inky_Wretch, Sep 28, 2012
    #563
  12. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

    Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2008/10/reagans_comeback.html

    From the story (so take it up with the Washington Post if you have complaints).

    Why do you suppose the CBS gentleman skipped over that one?
     
    old_tony, Sep 28, 2012
    #564
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