FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Dick Whitman · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Ben_Hecht said:

Dick Whitman said:

Double Down said:

Dick Whitman said:

LongTimeListener said:

RickStain said:

Silver did a great job explaining today why all the criticism is just obfuscation at this point.

He showed how you can do all the complicated matherization that he does, or you can boil it down to a simple sentence, and the result is the same: Obama is probably but not certainly going to win.

The simple sentence was "Obamas ahead in Ohio."

There's always a chance that all the polls will miss by several points in the same direction because of an expected turnout profile. Essentially, the polls are saying Obama +2, and you've got maybe a three-point spread either way, so it might be anywhere from R+1 to O+5.

Side note: In a future election cycle, I want the Democrats to nominate a candidate whose last name begins with R, and the Republicans to put up a "D" and really confuse people like me.
Click to expand...

Chance of winning up over 80 percent and EVs over 300.

I have to believe Silver is getting a little nervous about this just because of the payback that will come if Romney wins. The fact that he even now gives Romney a 20 percent chance -- which is not insurmountable, I've made many bets in my day at 4-1 odds or worse -- will be completely forgotten, of course.

But we all know everyone mocking Silver will definitely write a column with "Damn, the guy nailed it" if he's as close as he was last time. Right? Right.
Click to expand...

If Romney wins, his blog will fade into obscurity and he'll likely be a cultural relic. You'll see him on some documentary some day about the crazy '10s.

It may not be fair, but that's what will happen.
Click to expand...

So why Dick Morris still get high paying jobs and TV gigs?
Click to expand...

Because Morris has a resume outside of predicting political outcomes. He's a personality who happens to also throw out predictions. He's Lee Corso. This - the forecasting game - is the entirety of Silver's celebrity. His whole schtick is that data analysis is more reliable than punditry and "gut" feelings.

In his book, Silver explains that pundits actually gain traction and celebrity and visibility if they're wrong. That's because people want outlandish, bold predictions, not grounded ones that largely reflect consensus.
Click to expand...

Yes, Morris has a "resume".

And he has a distinctive "personality".

He's also been throwing shit at walls the past few years, hoping that something correct actually sticks. But if he's been holding his breath during the described period, he's dead.

His credibility was long-ago shot to shit.
Click to expand...

Oh, I agree with you. I have no interest in anything he has to say.

But, again, his value as an on-air talent isn't completely tied up in the accuracy of his predictions. He could predict that Gary Johnson is going to win, and they'd trot him back out on Wednesday like nothing ever happened. Silver's entire celebrity is premised upon being the voice of statistical reason. His mass appeal would not survive a Romney victory.

Baron Scicluna · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

RickStain said:

Baron Scicluna said:

Walmart has 2.2 million employees. A $10 a week raise for each of them would be $22 million. Multiply that by 52 weeks, and you get about $114 million per year.

Walmart's NET operating income was about $15.7 BILLION.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walmart)

In other words, a 25 cent an hour raise would be cost 0.00726114649 (yes, I used a calculator) percent of Walmart's net income.

Pity poor Walmart.
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You missed a couple of decimal points.

1) $1.14 billion ($1,140 million).

2) 0.7... percent, not 0.007 percent. So actually 7 percent.
Click to expand...

I sucked at math in school.

But still, my point stands. The poster who I was responding to said that a 25 cent an hour raise wouldn't be cost effective for a business. A 7 percent net profit loss for a $15 billion per year company isn't that much.

RickStain · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Easy to say when it's not your money.

cranberry · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

RickStain said:

Easy to say when it's not your money.
Click to expand...

Even easier when we're talking about .0001 percenters like the Waltons!

RickStain · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Wal-Mart is a publicly owned company. Lots of people are part-owners of those profits, including many of the employees.

Brooklyn Bridge · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

The guy who does Unskewed Politics farts in Newt Gingrich's general direction. And he is a manly man and would eat Nate Silver for lunch.

Romney 359 Obama 179

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/a-manly-mans-map/264403/

Gehrig · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

http://beforeitsnews.com/blogging-citizen-journalism/2012/10/cnn-exposed-emmy-winning-former-cnn-journalist-amber-lyon-blows-the-whistle-2444190.html

Former CNN reporter Amber Lyon is claiming she has proof the Obama administration paid CNN to run certain stories and delete certain stories, most notably an interview with Nick Robertson who interviewed Mohammed Al Zawahiri regarding the Egyptian uprising and it being a protest for the release of the Blind Shiek.

RickStain · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Gehrig said:

http://beforeitsnews.com/blogging-citizen-journalism/2012/10/cnn-exposed-emmy-winning-former-cnn-journalist-amber-lyon-blows-the-whistle-2444190.html

Former CNN reporter Amber Lyon is claiming she has proof the Obama administration paid CNN to run certain stories and delete certain stories, most notably an interview with Nick Robertson who interviewed Mohammed Al Zawahiri regarding the Egyptian uprising and it being a protest for the release of the Blind Shiek.
Click to expand...

That sounds like a potentially amazing story, but I tried to skim that site and found it unreadable. I'll wait for someone else to pick it up before I get too intrigued.

Brooklyn Bridge · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

RickStain said:

Gehrig said:

http://beforeitsnews.com/blogging-citizen-journalism/2012/10/cnn-exposed-emmy-winning-former-cnn-journalist-amber-lyon-blows-the-whistle-2444190.html

Former CNN reporter Amber Lyon is claiming she has proof the Obama administration paid CNN to run certain stories and delete certain stories, most notably an interview with Nick Robertson who interviewed Mohammed Al Zawahiri regarding the Egyptian uprising and it being a protest for the release of the Blind Shiek.
Click to expand...

That sounds like a potentially amazing story, but I tried to skim that site and found it unreadable. I'll wait for someone else to pick it up before I get too intrigued.
Click to expand...

No need to. Alex Jones is in the story and at the end there is a link to donate to the Romney campaign.

old_tony · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Dick Whitman said:

Ben_Hecht said:

Dick Whitman said:

Double Down said:

Dick Whitman said:

LongTimeListener said:

RickStain said:

Silver did a great job explaining today why all the criticism is just obfuscation at this point.

He showed how you can do all the complicated matherization that he does, or you can boil it down to a simple sentence, and the result is the same: Obama is probably but not certainly going to win.

The simple sentence was "Obamas ahead in Ohio."

There's always a chance that all the polls will miss by several points in the same direction because of an expected turnout profile. Essentially, the polls are saying Obama +2, and you've got maybe a three-point spread either way, so it might be anywhere from R+1 to O+5.

Side note: In a future election cycle, I want the Democrats to nominate a candidate whose last name begins with R, and the Republicans to put up a "D" and really confuse people like me.
Click to expand...

Chance of winning up over 80 percent and EVs over 300.

I have to believe Silver is getting a little nervous about this just because of the payback that will come if Romney wins. The fact that he even now gives Romney a 20 percent chance -- which is not insurmountable, I've made many bets in my day at 4-1 odds or worse -- will be completely forgotten, of course.

But we all know everyone mocking Silver will definitely write a column with "Damn, the guy nailed it" if he's as close as he was last time. Right? Right.
Click to expand...

If Romney wins, his blog will fade into obscurity and he'll likely be a cultural relic. You'll see him on some documentary some day about the crazy '10s.

It may not be fair, but that's what will happen.
Click to expand...

So why Dick Morris still get high paying jobs and TV gigs?
Click to expand...

Because Morris has a resume outside of predicting political outcomes. He's a personality who happens to also throw out predictions. He's Lee Corso. This - the forecasting game - is the entirety of Silver's celebrity. His whole schtick is that data analysis is more reliable than punditry and "gut" feelings.

In his book, Silver explains that pundits actually gain traction and celebrity and visibility if they're wrong. That's because people want outlandish, bold predictions, not grounded ones that largely reflect consensus.
Click to expand...

Yes, Morris has a "resume".

And he has a distinctive "personality".

He's also been throwing shit at walls the past few years, hoping that something correct actually sticks. But if he's been holding his breath during the described period, he's dead.

His credibility was long-ago shot to shit.
Click to expand...

Oh, I agree with you. I have no interest in anything he has to say.

But, again, his value as an on-air talent isn't completely tied up in the accuracy of his predictions. He could predict that Gary Johnson is going to win, and they'd trot him back out on Wednesday like nothing ever happened. Silver's entire celebrity is premised upon being the voice of statistical reason. His mass appeal would not survive a Romney victory.
Click to expand...

So we don't have to hear about him any more beginning Wednesday? Great!

RickStain · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Brooklyn Bridge said:

RickStain said:

Gehrig said:

http://beforeitsnews.com/blogging-citizen-journalism/2012/10/cnn-exposed-emmy-winning-former-cnn-journalist-amber-lyon-blows-the-whistle-2444190.html

Former CNN reporter Amber Lyon is claiming she has proof the Obama administration paid CNN to run certain stories and delete certain stories, most notably an interview with Nick Robertson who interviewed Mohammed Al Zawahiri regarding the Egyptian uprising and it being a protest for the release of the Blind Shiek.
Click to expand...

That sounds like a potentially amazing story, but I tried to skim that site and found it unreadable. I'll wait for someone else to pick it up before I get too intrigued.
Click to expand...

No need to. Alex Jones is in the story and at the end there is a link to donate to the Romney campaign.
Click to expand...

That's all true. But Amber Lyon has a resume that has earned at least some level of credibility, and you can watch the interview to see her own words. She's at least a 6. Watching it now...

Double Down · Nov 2, 2012

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

You know, we've barely talked about this, but the Florida polls of late sure aren't going Romney's way this week.

I don't know that I buy it, but... this thing will be over by 7 p.m. if Obama wins Florida.

I realize I have now angered the electoral gods with this post.

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FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

Baron Scicluna Well-Known Member

RickStain Well-Known Member

cranberry Well-Known Member

RickStain Well-Known Member

Brooklyn Bridge Well-Known Member

Gehrig Active Member

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FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

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