FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Two days before the election I predict a repeat of the 2000 fiasco except multiple states will have legal battles. It's gonna be close. You have one side sticking its head in the sand saying toss up states are signed, sealed and delivered and the other side claiming states are in play that will clearly go Obama. My guess is the truth is somewhere in the middle meaning it's going to be close and contentious.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Publicity stunt.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

I voted on Friday in Palm Beach County. I went at 9 am and waited in line at least an hour and a half. The line was still around the building when i left. The Palm Beach Post reported waits yesterday of up to 8 hours. The Gov refused to extend early voting as the last gov did when there was such a large turnout.

A woman finished voting then came back to talk to her friend who was standing in front of me. She said she didn't know about all the races/issues on the ballot and had to google them while she was in the booth saying "I mean, I knew who I wanted to vote for for governor." Only problem with that is that we aren't electing a governor this year.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

It's still close enough that polling error could make Nate's model invalid in enough states to swing it to Romney.
BTW, there's another stock market type betting market whose name I forget where the Obama odds are much higher than on InTrade. This is an arbitrage opportunity, as the right mix of bets on both guarantee a profit whoever wins.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

This is odd. I was told people would like Romney less the more they got to know him:


Rick Klein ‏@rickklein

whatever else happens, voters like Romney more at end of campaign than at any point during it. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/romney-rises-in-favorability-obamas-pushback-is-intensity/ …

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Silver tweeted earlier that Obama has about an 80% chance of winning if the popular vote ends up tied. His chances are 90% if he wins the popular vote by 1%. But, his chances fall to 30% if he loses the popular vote by 1%.

That's how close it is.

And, it's unlikely Ohio's vote diverges very far from the national popular vote.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Silver tweeted that, or YF's exhaustive analysis concludes that? Because most poll averages have the popular vote a toss-up and Obama up 3 points or so in Ohio.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Here's the tweet:

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1.


The RCP average has Obama up 0.2%.

The latest polls have four ties, and two polls showing Obama +1.

So, a Romney 1% victory in the popular vote is well within the margin of error, and could be chalked up strictly to turnout and "voter enthusiasm".

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Happy to accept publicity as part and parcel of the gesture? Surely.

But they're doing it -- and they've done it, previously.

They're still willing to take action on EC margin of victory. No doubt they're just tired of writing business at 2-9 odds . .. in effect paying people =18% after holding their money for three days.

They're smart -- smarter than GOP sheep who're being swayed by Rovian bullshittters who are simply looking to jawbone in an effort to bump GOP voter turnout.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

So, to answer my question, not a Silver tweet then assessing Ohio as being in step with national. Thanks.