FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

48 hours until Tuesday.... and I don't have a clue what will take place on Tuesday. Two months ago, I thought Obama had it in the bag. Four weeks ago, I thought an avalanche

I do think that:

- Romney will win the popular vote, possibly by a substantial margin. I think that he will dominate the red states and, frankly, if I was an Obama voter living in a red state and didn't have a Governor's race or a Senate race, I'm not sure I would even show.
- Ohio is such a pickle for Romney. If his internals were trending better in Ohio, he wouldn't be spending so much of his time and money in Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire or Pennsylvania. I think, 7-10 days ago, his numbers showed that Ohio just wasn't coming together and he needed a new path.
- New Hampshire, Iowa and Wisconsin could be the "makeup" here for Romney. States full of white people who are homeowners. Of those three, I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa swing to Romney -- low unemployment and a fair amount of Christian voters who have really not been considered as a large voting bloc. Wisconsin brings a deeper challenge. (Although, if Green Bay/Appleton voters show up for Romney in large numbers, he may very well win). These three states require a different message than recession-battered swing states. Romney's message does resonate a bit more in these places because they don't have large clumps of downtrodden people.
- Pennsylvania is Fool's Gold for Romney unless so many variables come together. I think the illusion comes in that Pennsylvania may have more suburban voters (and fewer true "Rust Belt" voters) than Ohio does. Both Pennsylvania and Ohio elect Republican governors and senators a fair amount -- but, Obama still has a hold in these states with his base. (Yes, this means it will come down to turnout and I believe Romney thinks he can win the turnout game in PA rather than OH).

One nugget to think about on polling:
- Do conservatives/Republicans shy away from revealing their voting preference? I've wondered about this since the first George W. Bush term. If you describe yourself as a conservative or a Republican, you may find yourself being called selfish and uncaring. If someone calls you at your home address to ask your political preference, are you going to tell them what you believe? Or what they'll want to hear to get them off the phone faster? I do think that Obama voters still don't mind publicly professing they are Obama voters. The Republican brand remains damaged from 2004-2008. Their supporters may vote for Romney but I think they're not as vocal about it... so that they're not called selfish and uncaring.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

State Journal doesn't exactly have a record of picking Democrats.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

exmedia, white Christian conservatives are a very oppressed minority in this country, that is true. I can see why someone would feel shame.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Redskins lost today, Obama is toast.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

I am also fascinated by whether we will see "ticket-splitter" voting in some of the red states that have weak Republican senate candidates. Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota will all be in Romney's column, even by hefty margins. I can't think of many people in Missouri proudly telling a pollster, "hell yeah, I'm voting for Akin!" but, in the privacy of the voting booth, will that Republican vote for McCaskill? She hasn't exactly been cracking 50% very much. Same in Indiana with the Murdouch mess.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Without Oprah to guide them, there's really no telling.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Of course, I think Alabama beating LSU means the Democrat takes the White House. Or something.

Also, if you bet on Obama with Ireland's leading bookmaker it is already paying out. Seems a dangerous move to me.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

@exmedia.

Electoral map is turning a rosier hue.
Those who want to concede the point, will.
Those in denial, won't.
Let's put it this way.
Romney spent the Saturday before Election Day in Colorado, which was solidly blue a few months ago.
It is now in play.
Again, clear for all to see.
Mitt will be drinking his celebratory glass of victory milk this week.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

In six months there will be 5,000 blogs citing it as evidence that the White House fixed the election.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

That's very true. Ellen and Rachael Ray don't have the same reach.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Zagoshe's posts are more entertaining than either of you guys.
I'm just giving it to you straight.
Here's a hint: Don't take yourself or your opinions so seriously.