FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Romney avoided $100m in taxes?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/05/romney_avoided_taxes_through_netherlands.html

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Good for him if he did.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

You should convert to being a full-time rapper, given your mad flow.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

YF is Joe Scarborough?

When you get right down to it, on all 365 days of the year there is a 50/50 chance of rain. It's either going to rain or it isn't. But saying that doesn't help anyone plan a barbecue.

Silver is saying based on all the data he has studied -- which is a whole lot of data -- Obama has an 86 percent chance of winning. Why would he jimmy down the data?

Returning to the baseball part of it, though, I understand that 86 percent is a big number. As Rick said earlier -- there was one point where Romney's chances of winning were roughly equal to the Giants winning the World Series at the point they trailed the Cardinals 3-1 in the NLCS. It doesn't mean it can't happen, it just means it's quite unlikely.

I'm sure you've seen a day with an 85 percent chance of rain and it didn't rain.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Sure. But, as every every investment advertisement has to warn, past performance is no guaranty of future results.

Models that work in one election cycle don't always work in the next. And, that's the part Silver can't know.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Obama leads all four Ohio polls released today:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/05/latest_swing_state_polls.html

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

And yet Capone went to prison for the same thing.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Not exactly.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Absolutely. And he'd be the first one to tell you that.

Last time, the election just happened to fall dead center into the range of results his model predicted. If he'd been 1 percentage point off, which he had a very high probability of being, he'd still be some anonymous numbers guy that nerds like me drooled over. Instead, he's a victim of his own success.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

I totally get this. I do.

I made the baseball analogy weeks ago. A small lead, late, warrants heavily favoring the team/candidate in the lead.

And, Romney never consistently polled well in swing states like Ohio.

But, it's not like their are no polls that have showed him tied in Ohio. And, they're basically all within the margin of error. Now, with so many polls, Romney would likely have led in some if it was just a case of "margin of error".

So, admittedly, I'm hoping like hell that Rasmussen is right, and everyone else is wrong. and/or that Gallup's last national poll is right.

Now, I get that a lot of people dismiss Rasmussen, including Silver to a degree.

But, we won't know who's polls are correct until after the election.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Gotta love his patriotism.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

And barely getting t0 50%, even as pollsters push "leaners" to make a decision.

Lots of leaners won't show.