FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Do you pay more in taxes than you owe?

What else do you over pay for?

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Let's stipulate for a moment that Silver's methodology does as good a job with the polling data as can be done, and that he's got the margin of error down to +/- 3 points either way, with the error coming from the possibility that the polls don't reflect the reality of turnout.

We all agree that he's going to get buried by the punditry if the +3 happens to show up, and show up in Romney's favor, despite the fact that he's acknowledged roughly a 15% chance of that happening.

But what if the +3 shows up, but in Obama's favor? How does Silver look if the election is something like 55-45 and Obama wins 340+ electoral votes? He's also put that scenario at roughly 15%.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD


One of my favorite classes in college was Public Opinion and Voting Behavior. Polling science was a major part of that class. One big takeaway for me was that only a certain kind of person will take a poll. So many of us can't or won't. A bias could always be embedded within the "profile" of the poll-taker.

So I've been wracking my brain with Mr. Lugs: Is there something Nate Silver can't see? Could there be some huge bias that's emerged on the landscape new or unique to this cycle?

I've been thinking about this for days. I feel like Scarlett O'Hara in the penultimate scene of Gone With the Wind.. I'm searching in the mist.. Can't see it.. What is it?

Finally today something occurred to me: Is it Nate Silver himself?

Have we reached a point where a significant amount of people won't vote for Obama because they believe it's a statistical inevitability?

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

He believes, as does very roughly half the country, that our country is founded and run on the idea that everybody should act in their own self-interest, and that the net result of that is the best way to move the country forward.

There is nothing unpatriotic about acting in your own best interests within the rules. Within a certain, common worldview, it's the *most* patriotic thing you can do.

Don't hate the player, hate the game.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Did you overpay for your spouse or cheap out?

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Do you deny that the electoral map has been growing rosier in complexion?

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Romney also avoided taxes by setting up a charitable trust for the Mormon Church. Every year, the trust paid out ... to Mitt Romney.

Again legal. I'm sure we've all done this with our charitable trusts.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

YF, Gallup and IBBD did suspend their polls due to Sandy. Both are located in New Jersey for one thing, and for another, Gallup really felt the storm disrupted sampling. As we see, during the interval, Gallup went from Romney up five to Romney up one, a striking incidence of poll convergence.
Silver's crime is putting a number on his probabilities, making it easier to mock if it's wrong. AP, hardly a radical new media outlet, ran a story last Sunday saying Obama is "poised to win in states with more than 270 electoral votes." It's the same statement, but with words instead of numbers, it's easier to cover your ass.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Cheap out.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Most people don't have a good mental spot for that sort of scenario. I bet if you polled the average baseball fan and asked him what the odds are of a team winning when trailing by one heading into the bottom of the ninth, they'd almost universally overrate the underdog's odds.

Our basic instinct is to categorize chances as "sure thing" or "about even." There's not a lot of room for nuance.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Another example of your lack of class.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

I would if I had $250 million in the bank. And if I belonged to a party that questioned the patriotism of anyone who disagreed with them, I wouldn't be whining about how much I had to pay in taxes.