FROM 2012 INTO 2013 POLITICS THREAD

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

This is pretty funny. We had a major local issue here a year ago and I actually answered the phone and answered the questions. (In this day of polls everywhere, I kind of feel like it's another way to make your voice heard.) Anyway, that's the only pollster I can remember answering. But it must have put my name on a list somewhere of People Who Will Participate, because my phone rings off the hook after every debate now.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Is your contention then that the OH polls are uniformly wrong? Because you'd have to go back before Halloween to find a single poll there giving Romney a lead:

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/oh-president-12

You'd think by random chance alone enough of the 'leaners' would have come down on the other side if it's really not in Obama's favor, no?

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

I get what your saying.

But, yes to some degree I'm hoping they have systematically oversampled Democrats.

And, because I believe "undecideds" will go to Romney (or stay home), I think Obama still has to be worried when he's not over 50%.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Would Nate Silver be as beloved here if his poll showed Romney winning?

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Excellent point.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Yes.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

False.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Yep. I would see it as an accurate picture, at least.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD



Nate Silver is "beloved" here because he's a sabermetrician.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Not in every case, as homosexuality clearly explains skewed polling.

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

Silver consistently forecast the Republican blowout of 2010 and nobody held it against him. I mean, I can't see why anybody would get MAD about a forecast that their candidate was going to lose a close election. It's just a forecast. Presumably, the people interested enough in politics to be mad/happy about Silver are committed partisans who vote their side even when they know it's going to be slaughtered (God knows this Democrat has). Would Republicans be mad at Silver if he said it was 50-50? Would both Democrats and Republicans be mad at him?

 

Re: THE 2012 POLITICS THREAD

I think Romney could win and he could win without cheating.

I don't think that's likely.

What's more likely is that Romney's people are pushing hard a story line that says it is close because they believe it will help their turnout. Conversely, the Obama people are backing that story line because they believe it will help their turnout.

In a major Electoral College vote state like Ohio or Florida, the turnout will be what matters. No what a few undecideds decide.

The popular vote doesn't matter and the national polls all reflect the popular vote. When you look at the state polls, you see the numbers that make it extremely difficult for Romney to get an EC vote win. That's why Silver and the number types are giving Obama such a high probability of being a two-term president.