Gambling & Journalism

When Nolan Richardson held his final fiery press conference at Arkansas, he alluded to a local newspaper reporter who covered the Razorbacks getting caught gambling on the Hogs. Nolan allegedly found out about it when the reporter started asking players if they thought they'd win by X points the day before the game. X always equaled the current point spread.

I forget the exact wording (I wish I'd saved the transcript too), but Nolan mentioned a college athlete who was kicked off the team for betting on sports and then pointed out the reporter was still on the UA beat after getting caught gambling on the team he was covering.

Naturally, the state's media glossed over that part of the press conference. It was never discussed again.

 

I listened to VSIN for the first time today. It is very good radio and because the lines are about the games, they actually talk about the games. A novel concept. I learned more on my three-hour drive today than I have in years from any sports radio show.

I do find some of the deep betting info hilarious though. Stuff like the TNF dog has beat the spread for five weeks straight. I don’t know how anyone can take a stat like that seriously. It’s completely a product of small sample size plus random chance.

However, there are tidbits in there that a smart person should pick up on. Never occurred to me until they mentioned it the value of assessing back-to-backs as far as NBA betting is concerned. If I were a NBA bettor, I think I’d exclusively bet against teams on the back end of a back-to-back unless it was Nuggets-Knicks or something.

But the best part about VSIN are the Musberger radio spots. Hawking male genital grooming products and one where he mentioned “no spooning with the wife tonight” were worth the price of admission.

 

It’s definitely an ethical concern, the insider trading aspect you mentioned in another post is legit, but there’s a more mundane concern too.

If you’re sweating out a wager, you’re easily distracted while doing your job. It’s not professional in that sense any more than it’s professional to get distracted by anything else that takes away from your focus.

 

You aren't exactly discovering the wheel there. The oddsmakers know this as well, and the back-to-back factor is baked into the line.

But your overall point is a great one. I have listened to RJ Bell's gambling podcasts for close to a decade, and the sports betting radio/pod is better than sports radio, because they talk about the games; not leBron vs. Jordan debates, or whether Pete Rose should be in the Hall of Fame.

 

Oh I figured. I'm not discovering anything at all.

But I think the vast majority of the public is like me, a gambling novice who never thought the angles through, but unlike (legal) sports gambling for time immemorial? There's going to be far more novices in the market than ever before as more states go legal and as mobile gambling gains hegemony. It will be interesting to see how that influx of non-smart money affects things.

 

Since this topic was bumped ....
In their glory days in the 80s and 90s, word was not to trust the Reno line on the 49ers because some were going to bet them no matter what. Is there that much uneducated money in Vegas on the three closest teams (Raiders, Rams, Chargers)?

 

What Dan Le Batard’s $50M DraftKings deal means for sports media’s future

 

The column makes the point that Le Batard left terrestrial radio and is now making a hughe amount of money for podcasting. Pat McAfee also signed a big deal for his podcast (was he ever on radio)? And Simmons nine figures with his podcast network.

What does this mean for sports talk radio. Will it disappear? Will toe local market stars go to podcasting?

 

Take away the me-me-me finale, and this is superb: Sports, Media And Gambling: Where Is Congress?

 

We're just seeing HOW much money is to be made -- mostly by the books and by the "celebrity" analysts/hosts/endorsers these sportsbooks are hiring. It's also the primary reason to watch live sports unless it's a premium matchup or you're simply a fan of a particular franchise or team.

DraftKings and FanDuel have so much money. It's a perfect business plan. They give anyone $500 to $1,500 to sign-up and start betting and, unlike Nevada/Jersey casinos, they don't have any union dealers, cooks, chefs, janitorial staff, housekeeping, pit bosses, etc. Casinos don't make a lot of money off sports betting, compared to penny slots. But if ALL you do is sports betting and have no overhead, you are printing stacks and stacks of cash.

90% of the bettors really don't have any idea what they're doing. DraftKings will match their $500 deposit with another $500, for example, and they'll blow the entire $1,000 within a month.

I got "legal" in 2019 on sports betting and I took my lumps early but I was never down more than $300. Then I realized the only way to profit, for me, is to use the promos/free bets that I receive every day and just cash those in. It's simple math. If you get a +175 bet on one side and -150 on the other, you'll profit, regardless of the outcome.

I'm up about 22k in the last year just doing this. It CAN be done but it requires some serious discipline. About $400 a week -- $60 a day average, a little more on weekends.

The shift was once I quit trying to predict the outcomes of games and, simply, looked to exploit "bad lines", the game got easy. (I play soccer totals for the most part.)