Gambling Thread

Hit a +1000 on Jets-Browns the other night, which has helped stabilize the bankroll.

Going with a juicy ATTD parlay for the early games, close to +1800 -- Nico Collins and Derrick Henry in Texans-Titans; Deebo in Washington and Mike Evans against the Saints.

I have lost feel on pre-game spreads late in the season. I mean, Buffalo giving 14.5 against the Pats seems like a lot, considering the recent form of both teams. But I'm sure if I take NE to cover today will be the day Buffalo just busts out and wins by 30. Niners-Commies seems like a stayaway at -14. Bears-Falcons with Bears favored by 3 at home? Shrug emoji.

So I'll stick to in-game bets and ATTDs, they seem to have been working lately.

 

FWIW, the 49ers have been favored by 10 or more five times this season and are 3-2 ATS in those games. The two they lost, they won both by double digits but didn't cover the spread (-13.5 vs. Tampa in Week 11 and won by 13; and -14.5 vs. Seattle in Week 14 and won by 12).

 

That ATTD bet sucked. But I got a Goedert TD in game and also took IUPUI +11.5 against Cleveland State so I’m ahead. Also, I might just start betting Horizon League hoops from here on out lol.

 

Senators with a goal with :16 left in the second. Two goals.

Winner!

(Preds only got 1 last night).

 

Tennessee takes a knee inside the 5 to preserve the under and win me two five-leg parlays.

 

LSU beats Wisconsin 35-31 to complete a season for the ages. They finished 12-1 against the Over.

The only one it missed was against Georgia State (O/U 74, LSU won 56-14; it was the only time this season the O/U for the game was above 70), and even then it almost hit. Georgia State had the ball in the red zone with about four minutes left, turned it over on downs, and LSU ran out the clock.
It was like Vegas had a complete blind spot there and never adjusted up. There were three late-season games where the O/U was 65+, but every other one was below that and only four of the Over games were within a touchdown of the total.

 

A couple fun dumb prop bets to end the year...one of my fantasy leagues still uses special teams so I bet a couple bucks on Patriots ST to score a TD the last two weeks, hoping to wish it into existence for my fake team. And the Patriots scored ST TDs both weeks! (Wasn't enough to lift me to a title this week, oh well) I'd usually say never go to the well a third time, but the Patriots are playing the Jets in what will likely be the finale for the big fraud Belichick, so the odds of the Patriots embarrassing the Jets by scoring at least once on special teams are pretty good.

 

Putting in the week's football bets this morning, and noticed an oddity. The Washington moneyline for the CFP championship game is +150 and their futures odds for winning the national title were +155.
Something to look at this week if you're betting that game, if you can still find futures odds this late. Looks like it's off the board now.

 

Sens and Preds combine for one goal in the second period in BOTH games.

Oof.

 

Yeah, I think the Sens & Preds gravy train has grinded ashore. Was fun while it lasted.

(Islanders games still have a shitton of second period goals though!)