George Will on global warming

What happens to the people, wealthy and middle class, who own stock in oil companies?
What happens to the people who work in the oil industry?
What do you do with all the existing refineries, generation plants and gas stations?
What do you do with the existing vehicle fleet?
Mechanics and service shops?

I'm not saying it shouldn't be done, but it requires a plan.
And it's going to be very expensive.

 

Subtitle: Because I Don't Agree With What He Says.

 

QUOTING WILL:

"It could cost tens of trillions (in expenditures and foregone economic growth, here and in less-favored parts of the planet) to try to fine-tune the planet's temperature. We cannot know if these trillions would purchase benefits commensurate with the benefits that would have come from social wealth that was not produced."

This is flawed, ignorant, and where he lost me.

Sure, we don't fully understand the global thermostat, or how (much) humans have affected it, and if so, over what period of time. But he isn't arguing on hard facts either. He rests the axis of his argument on a potential opportunity cost -- without acknowledging the greatest opportunity cost of all.

Indeed, we could ignore global warming and simply direct our nation's revenue toward endeavors aimed at increasing social wealth, and thus (in varying degrees) social welfare, technology, health care, etc. In a nutshell, human advancement.

But it means little if the byproduct of that advancement destroys the planet and facilitates our extinction. If ever there is a time to err on the side of caution, it is now. We're still here, right?

It is ludicrous to ignore the issue (ice caps ARE melting rapidly), or to suggest recent human civilizations haven't affected the current climate and where it is heading -- we have put things in the atmosphere the past 150-plus years that weren't there in such quantities before. Mr. Will, you can't ignore cause and effect.

Really, what are the opportunity costs of "advancement"? If we discovered how to defy gravity, cure cancer, or make super models weak in the knees, would it mean anything if no one was around to do it? Money is simply not the bottom line here.

To those who wonder why the U.S. should care, be involved, or take charge...well, it's a fair question given our current position in the global market. I call it a market not in a strict money sense, but in an open-place-of-business sense.

You can never isolate just one issue, which is why global warming will never be addressed appropriately -- or dealt with accordingly -- until we restore our credibility and our ability to designate and act upon moral imperatives. We are a big player, yes, but we're not the only player, and right now no one is playing nicely together.

This is but a prediction: Global warming will affect us in ways we can't yet imagine, and by "us" I mean humanity. And in reality, there is economic incentive to invest in global warming research and restriction. Someday, the world will rely on the state or country that is best equipped to handle a reality that is currently being ignored, and that country will emerge as a new, and perhaps, lone super power. Unless, of course, it is too late.

 

Excellent post. I've never understood the doom-and-gloom from the right-wingers who are convinced economic disaster awaits if we alter our lifestyles. Hmmm, seems to me an entrepreneurial country like this one would be full of sharp folks who can make millions from it.

Truth is, the tens of millions of cars on the planet have to have some affect, along with factories, etc. It's just common sense.

And another truth is that even if we're merely in a warming cycle, unlike any we've seen in thousands of years, we've based our economy around weather patterns that have existed for 100 or so. It's gonna get interesting for people living in low-lying areas of the coast, regardless of whether the source is partially man-made.

 

This president has not told the oil giants to piss off. Neither did any other president.
I'd like to see an actual cost analysis of moving away from oil. That would be fascinating.

 

What did shoe cobblers do when their trade started to die out? Or midwives? Or sword makers? They adapted.

It's not gonna change overnight anyway, so it's not like all the aforementioned people are going to suddenly find themselves out of work with no excuse. And for a lot of those situations, a car fueled by ethanol/biodiesal/etc. will still require mechanics, repairmen, etc. As for the oil companies? One thing to remember is that they're <i>energy</i> companies. It just happens that in our petroleum-fueled world, they make most of their profits from oil. Believe me, ExxonMobil and BP and others will find a way to survive.

And while I'm ranting, one thing I've always wondered was this: When the hell did the United States become such a nation of quitters? (And yes, I'm American and damn proud of it.) People always talk about how hard it will be to change our ways and how much work and money it will involve. We're the United States of fucking America*. For the past 100-150 years, we've been on the forefront of all sorts of progressive technological change. Why the hell are people throwing their hands up in the air when we talk about going green?


* -- Unless, of course, you're not an American.

 

As for the oil companies? One thing to remember is that they're <i>energy</i> companies. It just happens that in our petroleum-fueled world, they make most of their profits from oil. Believe me, ExxonMobil and BP and others will find a way to survive.

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And a few years after the oil companies figure out how to adapt, then newspapers will finally get the hang of it

 

That's a pretty cavalier attitude. You're talking about potentially millions of people wordlwide out of work.
You're also telling a place like Nigeria to go screw and to start dying of poverty at a faster rate.

 

The only people benefitting from the Nigerian oil trade are foreign oil companies and Nigerian politicians. The inhabitants of the Niger Delta live in abject poverty, yet they're sitting on some of the biggest oil reserves in the world. And they're getting much sicker much more quickly because most of the refineries just "flare off" the natural gas, so they're basically breathing in gas fumes 24-7. These people would be lucky if the world got off oil.

 

First, we're always gonna need oil. There's no way around it. The only question is how much we'll need it. Even if we do all the great things we could do to lessen our dependence on oil, all the same people will still be making a whole lotta cash -- just not as much of it.

Second, when you lessen your dependence on one product, another product ALWAYS takes its place. So, to all the stockholders who might lose a bit of money from a decline in the oil market, one word: Diversify.

Third, if we are now taking the approach that we don't change our ways, no matter how wrong our ways might be, simply because other countries aren't changing, I don't want to live here anymore. It is astounding to me that the Republican party continues to promote this idea that its the party all about old-time American values, when it's proven time and again that it doesn't recognize the most basic of those values. We DO NOT shy away from making the right decisions in this country because other countries are making the wrong ones. We make sure women and minorities are treated equally, no matter what the other countries believe. We make sure people are free to practice any religion, no matter what religions other governments are sanctioning. We seek to help those who cannot help themselves and try to make the world a better place, no matter if other countries give a shit or not. That's who we are.

I seriously wonder sometimes just what depths we'll sink to for the sake petty politics. The idea that anyone would toss out a line like, "We'll those other countries aren't doing it, so why should we," is concerning indication of just how low. But it's not nearly as concerning as the fact that we weren't leading an effort designed to do nothing more than make this world cleaner and safer for future generations.

 

Bravo, Mr. Will.