Hillary or George

Dirk: I'm six years and 3,000 miles away from the 2000 New York Senate race, but I had the impression that Lazio didn't run all that great of a campaign. Maybe somebody could get a good number (It's late and I'm tired and other people can look things up better on the Internet) but I thought Hillary won that race with about 54 percent of the vote or that she was eight percentage points ahead of Lazio. I wasn't impressed by Lazio's campaign. I think he had enough money to run a credible campaign and Hillary was a carpetbagger who had never run for elective office herself (What was Hillary's percentage compared to Gore's percentage).

Pataki has clearly faded in popularity - our man Jones noted that Pataki's approval rating was 29 percent in New York in his Esquire article about John McCain.

Dirk or anybody else familiar with New York politics - did Pataki really have any chance to gain much in down ballot offices? The governor runs as a team with the Lt. Governor - I know you had to vote for a team years ago; that is, you couldn't vote for a Republican governor and a Democratic Lt. Governor. Spiter was very popular as Attorney General, and I think there are two other offices. I know they made some bad choices as his Lt. Governors, but that always seemed to be a balancing act.

 

Lazio kept it very close until the end. His major blunder was "crowding" Hillary at a debate where he walked over to her, invaded her personal space and badgered her to sign some campaign pledge. Women recoiled from Lazio at that point. After that debate, the numbers settled in at the 55-45 margin they rougly ended at.

When I referred to downballot offices, I wasn't necessarily talking about statewide offices. Pataki failed to use his clout to get promising Republicans into the legislature. Part of being governor is building a farm team for your party and Pataki didn't do that.

 

The Dems would be foolish to trot out Hillary in '08, but, sadly, I expect them to do so anyway.

She has ZERO chance of getting elected for three reasons:

1. A lot of women resent her for staying with Bill. They feel it makes all women look bad.

2. She's very far to the left politically, and is fiesty and tempermental in a way that Rove can exploit

3. The sad reality is that large parts of this country still expect women, especially married women, to be like Laura Bush. They don't like the idea of women being deeply interested in matters of politics and government, let alone being in a high position of power as well.

 

Two opinions from someone who sits on the right:

If McCain were to get the GOP nomination, you would have to balance him with someone who is more conservative, like Allen or Frist for VP. Otherwise there will probably be enough of a splinter group from the far right that would allow Hillary/whomever to win.

One reason people don't like Hillary is that they didn't vote for her or against her in 1992, and right after Bill said "so help me God", she was seen as having a direct influence on presidential policy. If the Dems play it smart, they will not nominate Hillary, the GOP would split just enough with a McCain nomination allowing the Democrats to seize power across the board. I expect her to get the nomination, however, and the GOP to begrudgingly hold together for another presidential election cycle -- whether a moderate like McCain gets the nomination or a conservative like Allen.

 

bump